Fusion of Gaussian Processes Predictions with Monte Carlo Sampling

In science and engineering, we often work with models designed for accurate prediction of variables of interest. Recognizing that these models are approximations of reality, it becomes desirable to apply multiple models to the same data and integrate their outcomes. In this paper, we operate within the Bayesian paradigm, relying on Gaussian processes as our models. These models generate predictive probability density functions (pdfs), and the objective is to integrate them systematically, employing both linear and log-linear pooling. We introduce novel approaches for log-linear pooling, determining input-dependent weights for the predictive pdfs of the Gaussian processes. The aggregation of the pdfs is realized through Monte Carlo sampling, drawing samples of weights from their posterior. The performance of these methods, as well as those based on linear pooling, is demonstrated using a synthetic dataset.

Gaussian Process-Gated Hierarchical Mixtures of Experts

In this paper, we propose novel Gaussian process-gated hierarchical mixtures of experts (GPHMEs) that are used for building gates and experts. Unlike in other mixtures of experts where the gating models are linear to the input, the gating functions of our model are inner nodes built with Gaussian processes based on random features that are non-linear and non-parametric. Further, the experts are also built with Gaussian processes and provide predictions that depend on test data. The optimization of the GPHMEs is carried out by variational inference. There are several advantages of the proposed GPHMEs. One is that they outperform tree-based HME benchmarks that partition the data in the input space. Another advantage is that they achieve good performance with reduced complexity. A third advantage of the GPHMEs is that they provide interpretability of deep Gaussian processes and more generally of deep Bayesian neural networks. Our GPHMEs demonstrate excellent performance for large-scale data sets even with quite modest sizes.

Sequential Estimation of Gaussian Process-based Deep State-Space Models

We consider the problem of sequential estimation of the unknowns of state-space and deep state-space models that include estimation of functions and latent processes of the models. The proposed approach relies on Gaussian and deep Gaussian processes that are implemented via random feature-based Gaussian processes. With this model, we have two sets of unknowns, highly nonlinear unknowns (the values of the latent processes) and conditionally linear unknowns (the constant parameters of the random feature-based Gaussian processes). We present a method based on particle filtering where the constant parameters of the random feature-based Gaussian processes are integrated out in obtaining the predictive density of the states and do not need particles. We also propose an ensemble version of the method, with each member of the ensemble having its own set of features. With several experiments, we show that the method can track the latent processes up to a scale and rotation.

GP-LVM of categorical data from test-positive COVID-19 pregnant women

Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading throughout the world and while pregnant women present the same adverse outcome rates, they are underrepresented in clinical research. In this paper, we model categorical variables of 89 test-positive COVID-19 pregnant women within the unsupervised Bayesian framework. We model the data using latent Gaussian processes for density estimation of multivariate categorical data. The results show that the model can find latent patterns in the data, which in turn could provide additional insights into the study of pregnant women that are COVID-19 positive.