Deep Learning Meets Teleconnections: Improving S2S Predictions for European Winter Weather

Predictions on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales--ranging from two weeks to two month--are crucial for early warning systems but remain challenging owing to chaos in the climate system. Teleconnections, such as the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), offer windows of enhanced predictability, however, their complex interactions remain underutilized in operational forecasting. Here, we developed and evaluated deep learning architectures to predict North Atlantic-European (NAE) weather regimes, systematically assessing the role of remote drivers in improving S2S forecast skill of deep learning models. We implemented (1) a Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) network predicting the NAE regimes of the next six weeks based on previous regimes, (2) an Index-LSTM incorporating SPV and MJO indices, and (3) a ViT-LSTM using a Vision Transformer to directly encode stratospheric wind and tropical outgoing longwave radiation fields. These models are compared with operational hindcasts as well as other AI models. Our results show that leveraging teleconnection information enhances skill at longer lead times. Notably, the ViT-LSTM outperforms ECMWF's subseasonal hindcasts beyond week 4 by improving Scandinavian Blocking (SB) and Atlantic Ridge (AR) predictions. Analysis of high-confidence predictions reveals that NAO-, SB, and AR opportunity forecasts can be associated with SPV variability and MJO phase patterns aligning with established pathways, also indicating new patterns. Overall, our work demonstrates that encoding physically meaningful climate fields can enhance S2S prediction skill, advancing AI-driven subseasonal forecast. Moreover, the experiments highlight the potential of deep learning methods as investigative tools, providing new insights into atmospheric dynamics and predictability.

Finding the right XAI method -- A Guide for the Evaluation and Ranking of Explainable AI Methods in Climate Science

Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods shed light on the predictions of deep neural networks (DNNs). Several different approaches exist and have partly already been successfully applied in climate science. However, the often missing ground truth explanations complicate their evaluation and validation, subsequently compounding the choice of the XAI method. Therefore, in this work, we introduce XAI evaluation in the context of climate research and assess different desired explanation properties, namely, robustness, faithfulness, randomization, complexity, and localization. To this end we build upon previous work and train a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict the decade based on annual-mean temperature maps. Next, multiple local XAI methods are applied and their performance is quantified for each evaluation property and compared against a baseline test. Independent of the network type, we find that the XAI methods Integrated Gradients, Layer-wise relevance propagation, and InputGradients exhibit considerable robustness, faithfulness, and complexity while sacrificing randomization. The opposite is true for Gradient, SmoothGrad, NoiseGrad, and FusionGrad. Notably, explanations using input perturbations, such as SmoothGrad and Integrated Gradients, do not improve robustness and faithfulness, contrary to previous claims. Overall, our experiments offer a comprehensive overview of different properties of explanation methods in the climate science context and supports users in the selection of a suitable XAI method.