Swarm Characteristic Classification using Robust Neural Networks with Optimized Controllable Inputs

Having the ability to infer characteristics of autonomous agents would profoundly revolutionize defense, security, and civil applications. Our previous work was the first to demonstrate that supervised neural network time series classification (NN TSC) could rapidly predict the tactics of swarming autonomous agents in military contexts, providing intelligence to inform counter-maneuvers. However, most autonomous interactions, especially military engagements, are fraught with uncertainty, raising questions about the practicality of using a pretrained classifier. This article addresses that challenge by leveraging expected operational variations to construct a richer dataset, resulting in a more robust NN with improved inference performance in scenarios characterized by significant uncertainties. Specifically, diverse datasets are created by simulating variations in defender numbers, defender motions, and measurement noise levels. Key findings indicate that robust NNs trained on an enriched dataset exhibit enhanced classification accuracy and offer operational flexibility, such as reducing resources required and offering adherence to trajectory constraints. Furthermore, we present a new framework for optimally deploying a trained NN by the defenders. The framework involves optimizing defender trajectories that elicit adversary responses that maximize the probability of correct NN tactic classification while also satisfying operational constraints imposed on the defenders.

Federated Bayesian Deep Learning: The Application of Statistical Aggregation Methods to Bayesian Models

Federated learning (FL) is an approach to training machine learning models that takes advantage of multiple distributed datasets while maintaining data privacy and reducing communication costs associated with sharing local datasets. Aggregation strategies have been developed to pool or fuse the weights and biases of distributed deterministic models; however, modern deterministic deep learning (DL) models are often poorly calibrated and lack the ability to communicate a measure of epistemic uncertainty in prediction, which is desirable for remote sensing platforms and safety-critical applications. Conversely, Bayesian DL models are often well calibrated and capable of quantifying and communicating a measure of epistemic uncertainty along with a competitive prediction accuracy. Unfortunately, because the weights and biases in Bayesian DL models are defined by a probability distribution, simple application of the aggregation methods associated with FL schemes for deterministic models is either impossible or results in sub-optimal performance. In this work, we use independent and identically distributed (IID) and non-IID partitions of the CIFAR-10 dataset and a fully variational ResNet-20 architecture to analyze six different aggregation strategies for Bayesian DL models. Additionally, we analyze the traditional federated averaging approach applied to an approximate Bayesian Monte Carlo dropout model as a lightweight alternative to more complex variational inference methods in FL. We show that aggregation strategy is a key hyperparameter in the design of a Bayesian FL system with downstream effects on accuracy, calibration, uncertainty quantification, training stability, and client compute requirements.

Swarm Characteristics Classification Using Neural Networks

Understanding the characteristics of swarming autonomous agents is critical for defense and security applications. This article presents a study on using supervised neural network time series classification (NN TSC) to predict key attributes and tactics of swarming autonomous agents for military contexts. Specifically, NN TSC is applied to infer two binary attributes - communication and proportional navigation - which combine to define four mutually exclusive swarm tactics. We identify a gap in literature on using NNs for swarm classification and demonstrate the effectiveness of NN TSC in rapidly deducing intelligence about attacking swarms to inform counter-maneuvers. Through simulated swarm-vs-swarm engagements, we evaluate NN TSC performance in terms of observation window requirements, noise robustness, and scalability to swarm size. Key findings show NNs can predict swarm behaviors with 97% accuracy using short observation windows of 20 time steps, while also demonstrating graceful degradation down to 80% accuracy under 50% noise, as well as excellent scalability to swarm sizes from 10 to 100 agents. These capabilities are promising for real-time decision-making support in defense scenarios by rapidly inferring insights about swarm behavior.

VI-PANN: Harnessing Transfer Learning and Uncertainty-Aware Variational Inference for Improved Generalization in Audio Pattern Recognition

Transfer learning (TL) is an increasingly popular approach to training deep learning (DL) models that leverages the knowledge gained by training a foundation model on diverse, large-scale datasets for use on downstream tasks where less domain- or task-specific data is available. The literature is rich with TL techniques and applications; however, the bulk of the research makes use of deterministic DL models which are often uncalibrated and lack the ability to communicate a measure of epistemic (model) uncertainty in prediction. Unlike their deterministic counterparts, Bayesian DL (BDL) models are often well-calibrated, provide access to epistemic uncertainty for a prediction, and are capable of achieving competitive predictive performance. In this study, we propose variational inference pre-trained audio neural networks (VI-PANNs). VI-PANNs are a variational inference variant of the popular ResNet-54 architecture which are pre-trained on AudioSet, a large-scale audio event detection dataset. We evaluate the quality of the resulting uncertainty when transferring knowledge from VI-PANNs to other downstream acoustic classification tasks using the ESC-50, UrbanSound8K, and DCASE2013 datasets. We demonstrate, for the first time, that it is possible to transfer calibrated uncertainty information along with knowledge from upstream tasks to enhance a model's capability to perform downstream tasks.