Hedging and Pricing Structured Products Featuring Multiple Underlying Assets

Hedging a portfolio containing autocallable notes presents unique challenges due to the complex risk profile of these financial instruments. In addition to hedging, pricing these notes, particularly when multiple underlying assets are involved, adds another layer of complexity. Pricing autocallable notes involves intricate considerations of various risk factors, including underlying assets, interest rates, and volatility. Traditional pricing methods, such as sample-based Monte Carlo simulations, are often time-consuming and impractical for long maturities, particularly when there are multiple underlying assets. In this paper, we explore autocallable structured notes with three underlying assets and proposes a machine learning-based pricing method that significantly improves efficiency, computing prices 250 times faster than traditional Monte Carlo simulation based method. Additionally, we introduce a Distributional Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm to hedge a portfolio containing an autocallable structured note. Our distributional RL based hedging strategy provides better PnL compared to traditional Delta-neutral and Delta-Gamma neutral hedging strategies. The VaR 5% (PnL value) of our RL agent based hedging is 33.95, significantly outperforming both the Delta neutral strategy, which has a VaR 5% of -0.04, and the Delta-Gamma neutral strategy, which has a VaR 5% of 13.05. It also provides the hedging action with better left tail PnL, such as 95% and 99% value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), highlighting its potential for front-office hedging and risk management.

Hedging American Put Options with Deep Reinforcement Learning

This article leverages deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to hedge American put options, utilizing the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) method. The agents are first trained and tested with Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) asset paths and demonstrate superior performance over traditional strategies like the Black-Scholes (BS) Delta, particularly in the presence of transaction costs. To assess the real-world applicability of DRL hedging, a second round of experiments uses a market calibrated stochastic volatility model to train DRL agents. Specifically, 80 put options across 8 symbols are collected, stochastic volatility model coefficients are calibrated for each symbol, and a DRL agent is trained for each of the 80 options by simulating paths of the respective calibrated model. Not only do DRL agents outperform the BS Delta method when testing is conducted using the same calibrated stochastic volatility model data from training, but DRL agents achieves better results when hedging the true asset path that occurred between the option sale date and the maturity. As such, not only does this study present the first DRL agents tailored for American put option hedging, but results on both simulated and empirical market testing data also suggest the optimality of DRL agents over the BS Delta method in real-world scenarios. Finally, note that this study employs a model-agnostic Chebyshev interpolation method to provide DRL agents with option prices at each time step when a stochastic volatility model is used, thereby providing a general framework for an easy extension to more complex underlying asset processes.

Identifying, measuring, and mitigating individual unfairness for supervised learning models and application to credit risk models

In the past few years, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has garnered attention from various industries including financial services (FS). AI has made a positive impact in financial services by enhancing productivity and improving risk management. While AI can offer efficient solutions, it has the potential to bring unintended consequences. One such consequence is the pronounced effect of AI-related unfairness and attendant fairness-related harms. These fairness-related harms could involve differential treatment of individuals; for example, unfairly denying a loan to certain individuals or groups of individuals. In this paper, we focus on identifying and mitigating individual unfairness and leveraging some of the recently published techniques in this domain, especially as applicable to the credit adjudication use case. We also investigate the extent to which techniques for achieving individual fairness are effective at achieving group fairness. Our main contribution in this work is functionalizing a two-step training process which involves learning a fair similarity metric from a group sense using a small portion of the raw data and training an individually "fair" classifier using the rest of the data where the sensitive features are excluded. The key characteristic of this two-step technique is related to its flexibility, i.e., the fair metric obtained in the first step can be used with any other individual fairness algorithms in the second step. Furthermore, we developed a second metric (distinct from the fair similarity metric) to determine how fairly a model is treating similar individuals. We use this metric to compare a "fair" model against its baseline model in terms of their individual fairness value. Finally, some experimental results corresponding to the individual unfairness mitigation techniques are presented.