Probabilistic Forecasting for Network Resource Analysis in Integrated Terrestrial and Non-Terrestrial Networks

Efficient resource management is critical for Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTNs) to provide consistent, high-quality service in remote and under-served regions. While traditional single-point prediction methods, such as Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), have been used in terrestrial networks, they often fall short in NTNs due to the complexity of satellite dynamics, signal latency and coverage variability. Probabilistic forecasting, which quantifies the uncertainties of the predictions, is a robust alternative. In this paper, we evaluate the application of probabilistic forecasting techniques, in particular SFF, to NTN resource allocation scenarios. Our results show their effectiveness in predicting bandwidth and capacity requirements in different NTN segments of probabilistic forecasting compared to single-point prediction techniques such as LSTM. The results show the potential of black probabilistic forecasting models to provide accurate and reliable predictions and to quantify their uncertainty, making them indispensable for optimizing NTN resource allocation. At the end of the paper, we also present application scenarios and a standardization roadmap for the use of probabilistic forecasting in integrated Terrestrial Network (TN)-NTN environments.

Learn More by Using Less: Distributed Learning with Energy-Constrained Devices

Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as a solution for distributed model training across decentralized, privacy-preserving devices, but the different energy capacities of participating devices (system heterogeneity) constrain real-world implementations. These energy limitations not only reduce model accuracy but also increase dropout rates, impacting on convergence in practical FL deployments. In this work, we propose LeanFed, an energy-aware FL framework designed to optimize client selection and training workloads on battery-constrained devices. LeanFed leverages adaptive data usage by dynamically adjusting the fraction of local data each device utilizes during training, thereby maximizing device participation across communication rounds while ensuring they do not run out of battery during the process. We rigorously evaluate LeanFed against traditional FedAvg on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 datasets, simulating various levels of data heterogeneity and device participation rates. Results show that LeanFed consistently enhances model accuracy and stability, particularly in settings with high data heterogeneity and limited battery life, by mitigating client dropout and extending device availability. This approach demonstrates the potential of energy-efficient, privacy-preserving FL in real-world, large-scale applications, setting a foundation for robust and sustainable pervasive AI on resource-constrained networks.

F-KANs: Federated Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

In this paper, we present an innovative federated learning (FL) approach that utilizes Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) for classification tasks. By utilizing the adaptive activation capabilities of KANs in a federated framework, we aim to improve classification capabilities while preserving privacy. The study evaluates the performance of federated KANs (F- KANs) compared to traditional Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) on classification task. The results show that the F-KANs model significantly outperforms the federated MLP model in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score and stability, and achieves better performance, paving the way for more efficient and privacy-preserving predictive analytics.

On the use of Probabilistic Forecasting for Network Analysis in Open RAN

Unlike other single-point Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based prediction techniques, such as Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), probabilistic forecasting techniques (e.g., DeepAR and Transformer) provide a range of possible outcomes and associated probabilities that enable decision makers to make more informed and robust decisions. At the same time, the architecture of Open RAN has emerged as a revolutionary approach for mobile networks, aiming at openness, interoperability and innovation in the ecosystem of RAN. In this paper, we propose the use of probabilistic forecasting techniques as a radio App (rApp) within the Open RAN architecture. We investigate and compare different probabilistic and single-point forecasting methods and algorithms to estimate the utilization and resource demands of Physical Resource Blocks (PRBs) of cellular base stations. Through our evaluations, we demonstrate the numerical advantages of probabilistic forecasting techniques over traditional single-point forecasting methods and show that they are capable of providing more accurate and reliable estimates. In particular, DeepAR clearly outperforms single-point forecasting techniques such as LSTM and Seasonal-Naive (SN) baselines and other probabilistic forecasting techniques such as Simple-Feed-Forward (SFF) and Transformer neural networks.

Enhancing Cloud-Native Resource Allocation with Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques in O-RAN

The need for intelligent and efficient resource provisioning for the productive management of resources in real-world scenarios is growing with the evolution of telecommunications towards the 6G era. Technologies such as Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN) can help to build interoperable solutions for the management of complex systems. Probabilistic forecasting, in contrast to deterministic single-point estimators, can offer a different approach to resource allocation by quantifying the uncertainty of the generated predictions. This paper examines the cloud-native aspects of O-RAN together with the radio App (rApp) deployment options. The integration of probabilistic forecasting techniques as a rApp in O-RAN is also emphasized, along with case studies of real-world applications. Through a comparative analysis of forecasting models using the error metric, we show the advantages of Deep Autoregressive Recurrent network (DeepAR) over other deterministic probabilistic estimators. Furthermore, the simplicity of Simple-Feed-Forward (SFF) leads to a fast runtime but does not capture the temporal dependencies of the input data. Finally, we present some aspects related to the practical applicability of cloud-native O-RAN with probabilistic forecasting.

On the Impact of PRB Load Uncertainty Forecasting for Sustainable Open RAN

The transition to sustainable Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN) architectures brings new challenges for resource management, especially in predicting the utilization of Physical Resource Block (PRB)s. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to characterize the PRB load using probabilistic forecasting techniques. First, we provide background information on the O-RAN architecture and components and emphasize the importance of energy/power consumption models for sustainable implementations. The problem statement highlights the need for accurate PRB load prediction to optimize resource allocation and power efficiency. We then investigate probabilistic forecasting techniques, including Simple-Feed-Forward (SFF), DeepAR, and Transformers, and discuss their likelihood model assumptions. The simulation results show that DeepAR estimators predict the PRBs with less uncertainty and effectively capture the temporal dependencies in the dataset compared to SFF- and Transformer-based models, leading to power savings. Different percentile selections can also increase power savings, but at the cost of over-/under provisioning. At the same time, the performance of the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) is shown to be inferior to the probabilistic estimators with respect to all error metrics. Finally, we outline the importance of probabilistic, prediction-based characterization for sustainable O-RAN implementations and highlight avenues for future research.

Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) for Time Series Analysis

This paper introduces a novel application of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) to time series forecasting, leveraging their adaptive activation functions for enhanced predictive modeling. Inspired by the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, KANs replace traditional linear weights with spline-parametrized univariate functions, allowing them to learn activation patterns dynamically. We demonstrate that KANs outperforms conventional Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) in a real-world satellite traffic forecasting task, providing more accurate results with considerably fewer number of learnable parameters. We also provide an ablation study of KAN-specific parameters impact on performance. The proposed approach opens new avenues for adaptive forecasting models, emphasizing the potential of KANs as a powerful tool in predictive analytics.

Finite State Machine Synthesis for Evolutionary Hardware

This article considers application of genetic algorithms for finite machine synthesis. The resulting genetic finite state machines synthesis algorithm allows for creation of machines with less number of states and within shorter time. This makes it possible to use hardware-oriented genetic finite machines synthesis algorithm in autonomous systems on reconfigurable platforms.