From Black Box to Insight: Explainable AI for Extreme Event Preparedness

As climate change accelerates the frequency and severity of extreme events such as wildfires, the need for accurate, explainable, and actionable forecasting becomes increasingly urgent. While artificial intelligence (AI) models have shown promise in predicting such events, their adoption in real-world decision-making remains limited due to their black-box nature, which limits trust, explainability, and operational readiness. This paper investigates the role of explainable AI (XAI) in bridging the gap between predictive accuracy and actionable insight for extreme event forecasting. Using wildfire prediction as a case study, we evaluate various AI models and employ SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover key features, decision pathways, and potential biases in model behavior. Our analysis demonstrates how XAI not only clarifies model reasoning but also supports critical decision-making by domain experts and response teams. In addition, we provide supporting visualizations that enhance the interpretability of XAI outputs by contextualizing feature importance and temporal patterns in seasonality and geospatial characteristics. This approach enhances the usability of AI explanations for practitioners and policymakers. Our findings highlight the need for AI systems that are not only accurate but also interpretable, accessible, and trustworthy, essential for effective use in disaster preparedness, risk mitigation, and climate resilience planning.

XSub: Explanation-Driven Adversarial Attack against Blackbox Classifiers via Feature Substitution

Despite its significant benefits in enhancing the transparency and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, explainable AI (XAI) has yet to reach its full potential in real-world applications. One key challenge is that XAI can unintentionally provide adversaries with insights into black-box models, inevitably increasing their vulnerability to various attacks. In this paper, we develop a novel explanation-driven adversarial attack against black-box classifiers based on feature substitution, called XSub. The key idea of XSub is to strategically replace important features (identified via XAI) in the original sample with corresponding important features from a "golden sample" of a different label, thereby increasing the likelihood of the model misclassifying the perturbed sample. The degree of feature substitution is adjustable, allowing us to control how much of the original samples information is replaced. This flexibility effectively balances a trade-off between the attacks effectiveness and its stealthiness. XSub is also highly cost-effective in that the number of required queries to the prediction model and the explanation model in conducting the attack is in O(1). In addition, XSub can be easily extended to launch backdoor attacks in case the attacker has access to the models training data. Our evaluation demonstrates that XSub is not only effective and stealthy but also cost-effective, enabling its application across a wide range of AI models.