Integration of nested cross-validation, automated hyperparameter optimization, high-performance computing to reduce and quantify the variance of test performance estimation of deep learning models

The variability and biases in the real-world performance benchmarking of deep learning models for medical imaging compromise their trustworthiness for real-world deployment. The common approach of holding out a single fixed test set fails to quantify the variance in the estimation of test performance metrics. This study introduces NACHOS (Nested and Automated Cross-validation and Hyperparameter Optimization using Supercomputing) to reduce and quantify the variance of test performance metrics of deep learning models. NACHOS integrates Nested Cross-Validation (NCV) and Automated Hyperparameter Optimization (AHPO) within a parallelized high-performance computing (HPC) framework. NACHOS was demonstrated on a chest X-ray repository and an Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) dataset under multiple data partitioning schemes. Beyond performance estimation, DACHOS (Deployment with Automated Cross-validation and Hyperparameter Optimization using Supercomputing) is introduced to leverage AHPO and cross-validation to build the final model on the full dataset, improving expected deployment performance. The findings underscore the importance of NCV in quantifying and reducing estimation variance, AHPO in optimizing hyperparameters consistently across test folds, and HPC in ensuring computational feasibility. By integrating these methodologies, NACHOS and DACHOS provide a scalable, reproducible, and trustworthy framework for DL model evaluation and deployment in medical imaging.

Deep neural network improves the estimation of polygenic risk scores for breast cancer

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate the genetic risk of an individual for a complex disease based on many genetic variants across the whole genome. In this study, we compared a series of computational models for estimation of breast cancer PRS. A deep neural network (DNN) was found to outperform alternative machine learning techniques and established statistical algorithms, including BLUP, BayesA and LDpred. In the test cohort with 50% prevalence, the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) were 67.4% for DNN, 64.2% for BLUP, 64.5% for BayesA, and 62.4% for LDpred. BLUP, BayesA, and LPpred all generated PRS that followed a normal distribution in the case population. However, the PRS generated by DNN in the case population followed a bi-modal distribution composed of two normal distributions with distinctly different means. This suggests that DNN was able to separate the case population into a high-genetic-risk case sub-population with an average PRS significantly higher than the control population and a normal-genetic-risk case sub-population with an average PRS similar to the control population. This allowed DNN to achieve 18.8% recall at 90% precision in the test cohort with 50% prevalence, which can be extrapolated to 65.4% recall at 20% precision in a general population with 12% prevalence. Interpretation of the DNN model identified salient variants that were assigned insignificant p-values by association studies, but were important for DNN prediction. These variants may be associated with the phenotype through non-linear relationships.