An approach based on metaheuristic algorithms to the timetabling problem in deregulated railway markets

The train timetabling problem in liberalized railway markets represents a challenge to the coordination between infrastructure managers and railway undertakings. Efficient scheduling is critical in maximizing infrastructure capacity and utilization while adhering as closely as possible to the requests of railway undertakings. These objectives ultimately contribute to maximizing the infrastructure manager's revenues. This paper sets out a modular simulation framework to reproduce the dynamics of deregulated railway systems. Ten metaheuristic algorithms using the MEALPY Python library are then evaluated in order to optimize train schedules in the liberalized Spanish railway market. The results show that the Genetic Algorithm outperforms others in revenue optimization, convergence speed, and schedule adherence. Alternatives, such as Particle Swarm Optimization and Ant Colony Optimization Continuous, show slower convergence and higher variability. The results emphasize the trade-off between scheduling more trains and adhering to requested times, providing insights into solving complex scheduling problems in deregulated railway systems.

Towards Equitable Rail Service Allocation Through Fairness-Oriented Timetabling in Liberalized Markets

Over the last few decades, European rail transport has undergone major changes as part of the process of liberalization set out in European regulations. In this context of liberalization, railway undertakings compete with each other for the limited infrastructure capacity available to offer their rail services. The infrastructure manager is responsible for the equitable allocation of infrastructure between all companies in the market, which is essential to ensure the efficiency and sustainability of this competitive ecosystem. In this paper, a methodology based on Jain, Gini and Atkinson equity metrics is used to solve the rail service allocation problem in a liberalized railway market, analyzing the solutions obtained. The results show that the proposed methodology and the equity metrics used allow for equitable planning in different competitiveness scenarios. These results contrast with solutions where the objective of the infrastructure manager is to maximize its own profit, without regard for the equitable allocation of infrastructure. Therefore, the computational tests support the methodology and metrics used as a planning and decision support tool in a liberalized railway market.

A prediction and behavioural analysis of machine learning methods for modelling travel mode choice

The emergence of a variety of Machine Learning (ML) approaches for travel mode choice prediction poses an interesting question to transport modellers: which models should be used for which applications? The answer to this question goes beyond simple predictive performance, and is instead a balance of many factors, including behavioural interpretability and explainability, computational complexity, and data efficiency. There is a growing body of research which attempts to compare the predictive performance of different ML classifiers with classical random utility models. However, existing studies typically analyse only the disaggregate predictive performance, ignoring other aspects affecting model choice. Furthermore, many studies are affected by technical limitations, such as the use of inappropriate validation schemes, incorrect sampling for hierarchical data, lack of external validation, and the exclusive use of discrete metrics. We address these limitations by conducting a systematic comparison of different modelling approaches, across multiple modelling problems, in terms of the key factors likely to affect model choice (out-of-sample predictive performance, accuracy of predicted market shares, extraction of behavioural indicators, and computational efficiency). We combine several real world datasets with synthetic datasets, where the data generation function is known. The results indicate that the models with the highest disaggregate predictive performance (namely extreme gradient boosting and random forests) provide poorer estimates of behavioural indicators and aggregate mode shares, and are more expensive to estimate, than other models, including deep neural networks and Multinomial Logit (MNL). It is further observed that the MNL model performs robustly in a variety of situations, though ML techniques can improve the estimates of behavioural indices such as Willingness to Pay.