Abstract:Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is a significant and growing public health concern. Investigating alterations in speech and language patterns offers a promising path towards cost-effective and non-invasive early detection of AD on a large scale. Large language models (LLMs), such as GPT, have enabled powerful new possibilities for semantic text analysis. In this study, we leverage GPT-4 to extract five semantic features from transcripts of spontaneous patient speech. The features capture known symptoms of AD, but they are difficult to quantify effectively using traditional methods of computational linguistics. We demonstrate the clinical significance of these features and further validate one of them ("Word-Finding Difficulties") against a proxy measure and human raters. When combined with established linguistic features and a Random Forest classifier, the GPT-derived features significantly improve the detection of AD. Our approach proves effective for both manually transcribed and automatically generated transcripts, representing a novel and impactful use of recent advancements in LLMs for AD speech analysis.
Abstract:Dynamic assessment of mortality risk in the intensive care unit (ICU) can be used to stratify patients, inform about treatment effectiveness or serve as part of an early-warning system. Static risk scoring systems, such as APACHE or SAPS, have recently been supplemented with data-driven approaches that track the dynamic mortality risk over time. Recent works have focused on enhancing the information delivered to clinicians even further by producing full survival distributions instead of point predictions or fixed horizon risks. In this work, we propose a non-parametric ensemble model, Weighted Resolution Survival Ensemble (WRSE), tailored to estimate such dynamic individual survival distributions. Inspired by the simplicity and robustness of ensemble methods, the proposed approach combines a set of binary classifiers spaced according to a decay function reflecting the relevance of short-term mortality predictions. Models and baselines are evaluated under weighted calibration and discrimination metrics for individual survival distributions which closely reflect the utility of a model in ICU practice. We show competitive results with state-of-the-art probabilistic models, while greatly reducing training time by factors of 2-9x.