An Experimental Study on Decomposition-Based Deep Ensemble Learning for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Traffic flow forecasting is a crucial task in intelligent transport systems. Deep learning offers an effective solution, capturing complex patterns in time-series traffic flow data to enable the accurate prediction. However, deep learning models are prone to overfitting the intricate details of flow data, leading to poor generalisation. Recent studies suggest that decomposition-based deep ensemble learning methods may address this issue by breaking down a time series into multiple simpler signals, upon which deep learning models are built and ensembled to generate the final prediction. However, few studies have compared the performance of decomposition-based ensemble methods with non-decomposition-based ones which directly utilise raw time-series data. This work compares several decomposition-based and non-decomposition-based deep ensemble learning methods. Experimental results on three traffic datasets demonstrate the superiority of decomposition-based ensemble methods, while also revealing their sensitivity to aggregation strategies and forecasting horizons.

Decentralised Traffic Incident Detection via Network Lasso

Traffic incident detection plays a key role in intelligent transportation systems, which has gained great attention in transport engineering. In the past, traditional machine learning (ML) based detection methods achieved good performance under a centralised computing paradigm, where all data are transmitted to a central server for building ML models therein. Nowadays, deep neural networks based federated learning (FL) has become a mainstream detection approach to enable the model training in a decentralised manner while warranting local data governance. Such neural networks-centred techniques, however, have overshadowed the utility of well-established ML-based detection methods. In this work, we aim to explore the potential of potent conventional ML-based detection models in modern traffic scenarios featured by distributed data. We leverage an elegant but less explored distributed optimisation framework named Network Lasso, with guaranteed global convergence for convex problem formulations, integrate the potent convex ML model with it, and compare it with centralised learning, local learning, and federated learning methods atop a well-known traffic incident detection dataset. Experimental results show that the proposed network lasso-based approach provides a promising alternative to the FL-based approach in data-decentralised traffic scenarios, with a strong convergence guarantee while rekindling the significance of conventional ML-based detection methods.

Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks via Multi-Task Optimization for Traffic Density Prediction

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are a newly emerging research frontier in machine learning, which incorporate certain physical laws that govern a given data set, e.g., those described by partial differential equations (PDEs), into the training of the neural network (NN) based on such a data set. In PINNs, the NN acts as the solution approximator for the PDE while the PDE acts as the prior knowledge to guide the NN training, leading to the desired generalization performance of the NN when facing the limited availability of training data. However, training PINNs is a non-trivial task largely due to the complexity of the loss composed of both NN and physical law parts. In this work, we propose a new PINN training framework based on the multi-task optimization (MTO) paradigm. Under this framework, multiple auxiliary tasks are created and solved together with the given (main) task, where the useful knowledge from solving one task is transferred in an adaptive mode to assist in solving some other tasks, aiming to uplift the performance of solving the main task. We implement the proposed framework and apply it to train the PINN for addressing the traffic density prediction problem. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed training framework leads to significant performance improvement in comparison to the traditional way of training the PINN.