Hierarchical Matrix Completion for the Prediction of Properties of Binary Mixtures

Predicting the thermodynamic properties of mixtures is crucial for process design and optimization in chemical engineering. Machine learning (ML) methods are gaining increasing attention in this field, but experimental data for training are often scarce, which hampers their application. In this work, we introduce a novel generic approach for improving data-driven models: inspired by the ancient rule "similia similibus solvuntur", we lump components that behave similarly into chemical classes and model them jointly in the first step of a hierarchical approach. While the information on class affiliations can stem in principle from any source, we demonstrate how classes can reproducibly be defined based on mixture data alone by agglomerative clustering. The information from this clustering step is then used as an informed prior for fitting the individual data. We demonstrate the benefits of this approach by applying it in connection with a matrix completion method (MCM) for predicting isothermal activity coefficients at infinite dilution in binary mixtures. Using clustering leads to significantly improved predictions compared to an MCM without clustering. Furthermore, the chemical classes learned from the clustering give exciting insights into what matters on the molecular level for modeling given mixture properties.

Balancing Molecular Information and Empirical Data in the Prediction of Physico-Chemical Properties

Predicting the physico-chemical properties of pure substances and mixtures is a central task in thermodynamics. Established prediction methods range from fully physics-based ab-initio calculations, which are only feasible for very simple systems, over descriptor-based methods that use some information on the molecules to be modeled together with fitted model parameters (e.g., quantitative-structure-property relationship methods or classical group contribution methods), to representation-learning methods, which may, in extreme cases, completely ignore molecular descriptors and extrapolate only from existing data on the property to be modeled (e.g., matrix completion methods). In this work, we propose a general method for combining molecular descriptors with representation learning using the so-called expectation maximization algorithm from the probabilistic machine learning literature, which uses uncertainty estimates to trade off between the two approaches. The proposed hybrid model exploits chemical structure information using graph neural networks, but it automatically detects cases where structure-based predictions are unreliable, in which case it corrects them by representation-learning based predictions that can better specialize to unusual cases. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated using the prediction of activity coefficients in binary mixtures as an example. The results are compelling, as the method significantly improves predictive accuracy over the current state of the art, showcasing its potential to advance the prediction of physico-chemical properties in general.