Abstract:The rapid proliferation of the Internet and the widespread adoption of social networks have significantly accelerated information dissemination. However, this transformation has introduced complexities in information capture and processing, posing substantial challenges for researchers and practitioners. Predicting the dissemination of topic-related information within social networks has thus become a critical research focus. This paper proposes a predictive model for topic dissemination in social networks by integrating multidimensional features derived from key dissemination characteristics. Specifically, we introduce two novel indicators, user relationship breadth and user authority, into the PageRank algorithm to quantify user influence more effectively. Additionally, we employ a Text-CNN model for sentiment classification, extracting sentiment features from textual content. Temporal embeddings of nodes are encoded using a Bi-LSTM model to capture temporal dynamics. Furthermore, we refine the measurement of user interaction traces with topics, replacing traditional topic view metrics with a more precise communication characteristics measure. Finally, we integrate the extracted multidimensional features using a Transformer model, significantly enhancing predictive performance. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed model outperforms traditional machine learning and unimodal deep learning models in terms of FI-Score, AUC, and Recall, validating its effectiveness in predicting topic propagation within social networks.
Abstract:Existing approaches for information cascade prediction fall into three main categories: feature-driven methods, point process-based methods, and deep learning-based methods. Among them, deep learning-based methods, characterized by its superior learning and representation capabilities, mitigates the shortcomings inherent of the other methods. However, current deep learning methods still face several persistent challenges. In particular, accurate representation of user attributes remains problematic due to factors such as fake followers and complex network configurations. Previous algorithms that focus on the sequential order of user activations often neglect the rich insights offered by activation timing. Furthermore, these techniques often fail to holistically integrate temporal and structural aspects, thus missing the nuanced propagation trends inherent in information cascades.To address these issues, we propose the Cross-Domain Information Fusion Framework (CasCIFF), which is tailored for information cascade prediction. This framework exploits multi-hop neighborhood information to make user embeddings robust. When embedding cascades, the framework intentionally incorporates timestamps, endowing it with the ability to capture evolving patterns of information diffusion. In particular, the CasCIFF seamlessly integrates the tasks of user classification and cascade prediction into a consolidated framework, thereby allowing the extraction of common features that prove useful for all tasks, a strategy anchored in the principles of multi-task learning.