Online Detection Of Supply Chain Network Disruptions Using Sequential Change-Point Detection for Hawkes Processes

In this paper, we attempt to detect an inflection or change-point resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic on supply chain data received from a large furniture company. To accomplish this, we utilize a modified CUSUM (Cumulative Sum) procedure on the company's spatial-temporal order data as well as a GLR (Generalized Likelihood Ratio) based method. We model the order data using the Hawkes Process Network, a multi-dimensional self and mutually exciting point process, by discretizing the spatial data and treating each order as an event that has a corresponding node and time. We apply the methodologies on the company's most ordered item on a national scale and perform a deep dive into a single state. Because the item was ordered infrequently in the state compared to the nation, this approach allows us to show efficacy upon different degrees of data sparsity. Furthermore, it showcases use potential across differing levels of spatial detail.