Online-to-PAC generalization bounds under graph-mixing dependencies

Traditional generalization results in statistical learning require a training data set made of independently drawn examples. Most of the recent efforts to relax this independence assumption have considered either purely temporal (mixing) dependencies, or graph-dependencies, where non-adjacent vertices correspond to independent random variables. Both approaches have their own limitations, the former requiring a temporal ordered structure, and the latter lacking a way to quantify the strength of inter-dependencies. In this work, we bridge these two lines of work by proposing a framework where dependencies decay with graph distance. We derive generalization bounds leveraging the online-to-PAC framework, by deriving a concentration result and introducing an online learning framework incorporating the graph structure. The resulting high-probability generalization guarantees depend on both the mixing rate and the graph's chromatic number.

Adaptive time series forecasting with markovian variance switching

Adaptive time series forecasting is essential for prediction under regime changes. Several classical methods assume linear Gaussian state space model (LGSSM) with variances constant in time. However, there are many real-world processes that cannot be captured by such models. We consider a state-space model with Markov switching variances. Such dynamical systems are usually intractable because of their computational complexity increasing exponentially with time; Variational Bayes (VB) techniques have been applied to this problem. In this paper, we propose a new way of estimating variances based on online learning theory; we adapt expert aggregation methods to learn the variances over time. We apply the proposed method to synthetic data and to the problem of electricity load forecasting. We show that this method is robust to misspecification and outperforms traditional expert aggregation.