Towards Neural Scaling Laws for Foundation Models on Temporal Graphs

The field of temporal graph learning aims to learn from evolving network data to forecast future interactions. Given a collection of observed temporal graphs, is it possible to predict the evolution of an unseen network from the same domain? To answer this question, we first present the Temporal Graph Scaling (TGS) dataset, a large collection of temporal graphs consisting of eighty-four ERC20 token transaction networks collected from 2017 to 2023. Next, we evaluate the transferability of Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) for the temporal graph property prediction task by pre-training on a collection of up to sixty-four token transaction networks and then evaluating the downstream performance on twenty unseen token networks. We find that the neural scaling law observed in NLP and Computer Vision also applies in temporal graph learning, where pre-training on greater number of networks leads to improved downstream performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first empirical demonstration of the transferability of temporal graphs learning. On downstream token networks, the largest pre-trained model outperforms single model TGNNs on thirteen unseen test networks. Therefore, we believe that this is a promising first step towards building foundation models for temporal graphs.