Time-varying Autoregression with Low Rank Tensors

We present a windowed technique to learn parsimonious time-varying autoregressive models from multivariate timeseries. This unsupervised method uncovers spatiotemporal structure in data via non-smooth and non-convex optimization. In each time window, we assume the data follow a linear model parameterized by a potentially different system matrix, and we model this stack of system matrices as a low rank tensor. Because of its structure, the model is scalable to high-dimensional data and can easily incorporate priors such as smoothness over time. We find the components of the tensor using alternating minimization and prove that any stationary point of this algorithm is a local minimum. In a test case, our method identifies the true rank of a switching linear system in the presence of noise. We illustrate our model's utility and superior scalability over extant methods when applied to several synthetic and real examples, including a nonlinear dynamical system, worm behavior, sea surface temperature, and monkey brain recordings.