Predicting aging-related decline in physical performance with sparse electrophysiological source imaging

Objective: We introduce a methodology for selecting biomarkers from activation and connectivity derived from Electrophysiological Source Imaging (ESI). Specifically, we pursue the selection of stable biomarkers associated with cognitive decline based on source activation and connectivity patterns of resting-state EEG theta rhythm, used as predictors of physical performance decline in aging individuals measured by a Gait Speed (GS) slowing. Methods: Our two-step methodology involves estimating ESI using flexible sparse-smooth-nonnegative models, from which activation ESI (aESI) and connectivity ESI (cESI) features are derived. The Stable Sparse Classifier method then selects potential biomarkers related to GS changes. Results and Conclusions: Our predictive models using aESI outperform traditional methods such as the LORETA family. The models combining aESI and cESI features provide the best prediction of GS changes. Potential biomarkers from activation/connectivity patterns involve orbitofrontal and temporal cortical regions. Significance: The proposed methodology contributes to the understanding of activation and connectivity of GS-related ESI and provides features that are potential biomarkers of GS slowing. Given the known relationship between GS decline and cognitive impairment, this preliminary work opens novel paths to predict the progression of healthy and pathological aging and might allow an ESI-based evaluation of rehabilitation programs.