NTS-NOTEARS: Learning Nonparametric Temporal DAGs With Time-Series Data and Prior Knowledge

We propose a score-based DAG structure learning method for time-series data that captures linear, nonlinear, lagged and instantaneous relations among variables while ensuring acyclicity throughout the entire graph. The proposed method extends nonparametric NOTEARS, a recent continuous optimization approach for learning nonparametric instantaneous DAGs. The proposed method is faster than constraint-based methods using nonlinear conditional independence tests. We also promote the use of optimization constraints to incorporate prior knowledge into the structure learning process. A broad set of experiments with simulated data demonstrates that the proposed method discovers better DAG structures than several recent comparison methods. We also evaluate the proposed method on complex real-world data acquired from NHL ice hockey games containing a mixture of continuous and discrete variables. The code is available at https://github.com/xiangyu-sun-789/NTS-NOTEARS/.