Calibration-then-Calculation: A Variance Reduced Metric Framework in Deep Click-Through Rate Prediction Models

Deep learning has been widely adopted across various fields, but there has been little focus on evaluating the performance of deep learning pipelines. With the increased use of large datasets and complex models, it has become common to run the training process only once and compare the result to previous benchmarks. However, this procedure can lead to imprecise comparisons due to the variance in neural network evaluation metrics. The metric variance comes from the randomness inherent in the training process of deep learning pipelines. Traditional solutions such as running the training process multiple times are usually not feasible in deep learning due to computational limitations. In this paper, we propose a new metric framework, Calibrated Loss Metric, that addresses this issue by reducing the variance in its vanilla counterpart. As a result, the new metric has a higher accuracy to detect effective modeling improvement. Our approach is supported by theoretical justifications and extensive experimental validations in the context of Deep Click-Through Rate Prediction Models.