Simulating the time-evolution of quantum mechanical systems is BQP-hard and expected to be one of the foremost applications of quantum computers. We consider the approximation of Hamiltonian dynamics using subsampling methods from randomized numerical linear algebra. We propose conditions for the efficient approximation of state vectors evolving under a given Hamiltonian. As an immediate application, we show that sample based quantum simulation, a type of evolution where the Hamiltonian is a density matrix, can be efficiently classically simulated under specific structural conditions. Our main technical contribution is a randomized algorithm for approximating Hermitian matrix exponentials. The proof leverages the Nystr\"om method to obtain low-rank approximations of the Hamiltonian. We envisage that techniques from randomized linear algebra will bring further insights into the power of quantum computation.