Your Assumed DAG is Wrong and Here's How To Deal With It

Assuming a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that represents prior knowledge of causal relationships between variables is a common starting point for cause-effect estimation. Existing literature typically invokes hypothetical domain expert knowledge or causal discovery algorithms to justify this assumption. In practice, neither may propose a single DAG with high confidence. Domain experts are hesitant to rule out dependencies with certainty or have ongoing disputes about relationships; causal discovery often relies on untestable assumptions itself or only provides an equivalence class of DAGs and is commonly sensitive to hyperparameter and threshold choices. We propose an efficient, gradient-based optimization method that provides bounds for causal queries over a collection of causal graphs -- compatible with imperfect prior knowledge -- that may still be too large for exhaustive enumeration. Our bounds achieve good coverage and sharpness for causal queries such as average treatment effects in linear and non-linear synthetic settings as well as on real-world data. Our approach aims at providing an easy-to-use and widely applicable rebuttal to the valid critique of `What if your assumed DAG is wrong?'.

Whole Genome Transformer for Gene Interaction Effects in Microbiome Habitat Specificity

Leveraging the vast genetic diversity within microbiomes offers unparalleled insights into complex phenotypes, yet the task of accurately predicting and understanding such traits from genomic data remains challenging. We propose a framework taking advantage of existing large models for gene vectorization to predict habitat specificity from entire microbial genome sequences. Based on our model, we develop attribution techniques to elucidate gene interaction effects that drive microbial adaptation to diverse environments. We train and validate our approach on a large dataset of high quality microbiome genomes from different habitats. We not only demonstrate solid predictive performance, but also how sequence-level information of entire genomes allows us to identify gene associations underlying complex phenotypes. Our attribution recovers known important interaction networks and proposes new candidates for experimental follow up.