Critical Example Mining for Vehicle Trajectory Prediction using Flow-based Generative Models

Precise trajectory prediction in complex driving scenarios is essential for autonomous vehicles. In practice, different driving scenarios present varying levels of difficulty for trajectory prediction models. However, most existing research focuses on the average precision of prediction results, while ignoring the underlying distribution of the input scenarios. This paper proposes a critical example mining method that utilizes a data-driven approach to estimate the rareness of the trajectories. By combining the rareness estimation of observations with whole trajectories, the proposed method effectively identifies a subset of data that is relatively hard to predict BEFORE feeding them to a specific prediction model. The experimental results show that the mined subset has higher prediction error when applied to different downstream prediction models, which reaches +108.1% error (greater than two times compared to the average on dataset) when mining 5% samples. Further analysis indicates that the mined critical examples include uncommon cases such as sudden brake and cancelled lane-change, which helps to better understand and improve the performance of prediction models.

Learning from Naturalistic Driving Data for Human-like Autonomous Highway Driving

Driving in a human-like manner is important for an autonomous vehicle to be a smart and predictable traffic participant. To achieve this goal, parameters of the motion planning module should be carefully tuned, which needs great effort and expert knowledge. In this study, a method of learning cost parameters of a motion planner from naturalistic driving data is proposed. The learning is achieved by encouraging the selected trajectory to approximate the human driving trajectory under the same traffic situation. The employed motion planner follows a widely accepted methodology that first samples candidate trajectories in the trajectory space, then select the one with minimal cost as the planned trajectory. Moreover, in addition to traditional factors such as comfort, efficiency and safety, the cost function is proposed to incorporate incentive of behavior decision like a human driver, so that both lane change decision and motion planning are coupled into one framework. Two types of lane incentive cost -- heuristic and learning based -- are proposed and implemented. To verify the validity of the proposed method, a data set is developed by using the naturalistic trajectory data of human drivers collected on the motorways in Beijing, containing samples of lane changes to the left and right lanes, and car followings. Experiments are conducted with respect to both lane change decision and motion planning, and promising results are achieved.

Driver Identification through Stochastic Multi-State Car-Following Modeling

Intra-driver and inter-driver heterogeneity has been confirmed to exist in human driving behaviors by many studies. In this study, a joint model of the two types of heterogeneity in car-following behavior is proposed as an approach of driver profiling and identification. It is assumed that all drivers share a pool of driver states; under each state a car-following data sequence obeys a specific probability distribution in feature space; each driver has his/her own probability distribution over the states, called driver profile, which characterize the intradriver heterogeneity, while the difference between the driver profile of different drivers depict the inter-driver heterogeneity. Thus, the driver profile can be used to distinguish a driver from others. Based on the assumption, a stochastic car-following model is proposed to take both intra-driver and inter-driver heterogeneity into consideration, and a method is proposed to jointly learn parameters in behavioral feature extractor, driver states and driver profiles. Experiments demonstrate the performance of the proposed method in driver identification on naturalistic car-following data: accuracy of 82.3% is achieved in an 8-driver experiment using 10 car-following sequences of duration 15 seconds for online inference. The potential of fast registration of new drivers are demonstrated and discussed.