Interval Estimation of Coefficients in Penalized Regression Models of Insurance Data

The Tweedie exponential dispersion family is a popular choice among many to model insurance losses that consist of zero-inflated semicontinuous data. In such data, it is often important to obtain credibility (inference) of the most important features that describe the endogenous variables. Post-selection inference is the standard procedure in statistics to obtain confidence intervals of model parameters after performing a feature extraction procedure. For a linear model, the lasso estimate often has non-negligible estimation bias for large coefficients corresponding to exogenous variables. To have valid inference on those coefficients, it is necessary to correct the bias of the lasso estimate. Traditional statistical methods, such as hypothesis testing or standard confidence interval construction might lead to incorrect conclusions during post-selection, as they are generally too optimistic. Here we discuss a few methodologies for constructing confidence intervals of the coefficients after feature selection in the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) family with application to insurance data.

fastkqr: A Fast Algorithm for Kernel Quantile Regression

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for robust and heterogeneous learning that has seen applications in a diverse range of applied areas. However, its broader application is often hindered by the substantial computational demands arising from the non-smooth quantile loss function. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm named fastkqr, which significantly advances the computation of quantile regression in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The core of fastkqr is a finite smoothing algorithm that magically produces exact regression quantiles, rather than approximations. To further accelerate the algorithm, we equip fastkqr with a novel spectral technique that carefully reutilizes matrix computations. In addition, we extend fastkqr to accommodate a flexible kernel quantile regression with a data-driven crossing penalty, addressing the interpretability challenges of crossing quantile curves at multiple levels. We have implemented fastkqr in a publicly available R package. Extensive simulations and real applications show that fastkqr matches the accuracy of state-of-the-art algorithms but can operate up to an order of magnitude faster.