Abstract:In spite of the accomplishments of deep learning based algorithms in numerous applications and very broad corresponding research interest, at the moment there is still no rigorous understanding of the reasons why such algorithms produce useful results in certain situations. A thorough mathematical analysis of deep learning based algorithms seems to be crucial in order to improve our understanding and to make their implementation more effective and efficient. In this article we provide a mathematically rigorous full error analysis of deep learning based empirical risk minimisation with quadratic loss function in the probabilistically strong sense, where the underlying deep neural networks are trained using stochastic gradient descent with random initialisation. The convergence speed we obtain is presumably far from optimal and suffers under the curse of dimensionality. To the best of our knowledge, we establish, however, the first full error analysis in the scientific literature for a deep learning based algorithm in the probabilistically strong sense and, moreover, the first full error analysis in the scientific literature for a deep learning based algorithm where stochastic gradient descent with random initialisation is the employed optimisation method.
Abstract:Nowadays many financial derivatives which are traded on stock and futures exchanges, such as American or Bermudan options, are of early exercise type. Often the pricing of early exercise options gives rise to high-dimensional optimal stopping problems, since the dimension corresponds to the number of underlyings in the associated hedging portfolio. High-dimensional optimal stopping problems are, however, notoriously difficult to solve due to the well-known curse of dimensionality. In this work we propose an algorithm for solving such problems, which is based on deep learning and computes, in the context of early exercise option pricing, both approximations for an optimal exercise strategy and the price of the considered option. The proposed algorithm can also be applied to optimal stopping problems that arise in other areas where the underlying stochastic process can be efficiently simulated. We present numerical results for a large number of example problems, which include the pricing of many high-dimensional American and Bermudan options such as, for example, Bermudan max-call options in up to 5000 dimensions. Most of the obtained results are compared to reference values computed by exploiting the specific problem design or, where available, to reference values from the literature. These numerical results suggest that the proposed algorithm is highly effective in the case of many underlyings, in terms of both accuracy and speed.