SimPO: Simultaneous Prediction and Optimization

Many machine learning (ML) models are integrated within the context of a larger system as part of a key component for decision making processes. Concretely, predictive models are often employed in estimating the parameters for the input values that are utilized for optimization models as isolated processes. Traditionally, the predictive models are built first, then the model outputs are used to generate decision values separately. However, it is often the case that the prediction values that are trained independently of the optimization process produce sub-optimal solutions. In this paper, we propose a formulation for the Simultaneous Prediction and Optimization (SimPO) framework. This framework introduces the use of a joint weighted loss of a decision-driven predictive ML model and an optimization objective function, which is optimized end-to-end directly through gradient-based methods.

Predicting Loss Risks for B2B Tendering Processes

Sellers and executives who maintain a bidding pipeline of sales engagements with multiple clients for many opportunities significantly benefit from data-driven insight into the health of each of their bids. There are many predictive models that offer likelihood insights and win prediction modeling for these opportunities. Currently, these win prediction models are in the form of binary classification and only make a prediction for the likelihood of a win or loss. The binary formulation is unable to offer any insight as to why a particular deal might be predicted as a loss. This paper offers a multi-class classification model to predict win probability, with the three loss classes offering specific reasons as to why a loss is predicted, including no bid, customer did not pursue, and lost to competition. These classes offer an indicator of how that opportunity might be handled given the nature of the prediction. Besides offering baseline results on the multi-class classification, this paper also offers results on the model after class imbalance handling, with the results achieving a high accuracy of 85% and an average AUC score of 0.94.