Forecasting Opioid Incidents for Rapid Actionable Data for Opioid Response in Kentucky

We present efforts in the fields of machine learning and time series forecasting to accurately predict counts of future opioid overdose incidents recorded by Emergency Medical Services (EMS) in the state of Kentucky. Forecasts are useful to state government agencies to properly prepare and distribute resources related to opioid overdoses effectively. Our approach uses county and district level aggregations of EMS opioid overdose encounters and forecasts future counts for each month. A variety of additional covariates were tested to determine their impact on the model's performance. Models with different levels of complexity were evaluated to optimize training time and accuracy. Our results show that when special precautions are taken to address data sparsity, useful predictions can be generated with limited error by utilizing yearly trends and covariance with additional data sources.

Deep neural networks for fine-grained surveillance of overdose mortality

Surveillance of drug overdose deaths relies on death certificates for identification of the substances that caused death. Drugs and drug classes can be identified through the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes present on death certificates. However, ICD-10 codes do not always provide high levels of specificity in drug identification. To achieve more fine-grained identification of substances on a death certificate, the free-text cause of death section, completed by the medical certifier, must be analyzed. Current methods for analyzing free-text death certificates rely solely on look-up tables for identifying specific substances, which must be frequently updated and maintained. To improve identification of drugs on death certificates, a deep learning named-entity recognition model was developed, which achieved an F1-score of 99.13%. This model can identify new drug misspellings and novel substances that are not present on current surveillance look-up tables, enhancing the surveillance of drug overdose deaths.