A Spatiotemporal Radar-Based Precipitation Model for Water Level Prediction and Flood Forecasting

Study Region: Goslar and G\"ottingen, Lower Saxony, Germany. Study Focus: In July 2017, the cities of Goslar and G\"ottingen experienced severe flood events characterized by short warning time of only 20 minutes, resulting in extensive regional flooding and significant damage. This highlights the critical need for a more reliable and timely flood forecasting system. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the impact of radar-based precipitation data on forecasting river water levels in Goslar. Additionally, the study examines how precipitation influences water level forecasts in G\"ottingen. The analysis integrates radar-derived spatiotemporal precipitation patterns with hydrological sensor data obtained from ground stations to evaluate the effectiveness of this approach in improving flood prediction capabilities. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: A key innovation in this paper is the use of residual-based modeling to address the non-linearity between precipitation images and water levels, leading to a Spatiotemporal Radar-based Precipitation Model with residuals (STRPMr). Unlike traditional hydrological models, our approach does not rely on upstream data, making it independent of additional hydrological inputs. This independence enhances its adaptability and allows for broader applicability in other regions with RADOLAN precipitation. The deep learning architecture integrates (2+1)D convolutional neural networks for spatial and temporal feature extraction with LSTM for timeseries forecasting. The results demonstrate the potential of the STRPMr for capturing extreme events and more accurate flood forecasting.

DiffBatt: A Diffusion Model for Battery Degradation Prediction and Synthesis

Battery degradation remains a critical challenge in the pursuit of green technologies and sustainable energy solutions. Despite significant research efforts, predicting battery capacity loss accurately remains a formidable task due to its complex nature, influenced by both aging and cycling behaviors. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel general-purpose model for battery degradation prediction and synthesis, DiffBatt. Leveraging an innovative combination of conditional and unconditional diffusion models with classifier-free guidance and transformer architecture, DiffBatt achieves high expressivity and scalability. DiffBatt operates as a probabilistic model to capture uncertainty in aging behaviors and a generative model to simulate battery degradation. The performance of the model excels in prediction tasks while also enabling the generation of synthetic degradation curves, facilitating enhanced model training by data augmentation. In the remaining useful life prediction task, DiffBatt provides accurate results with a mean RMSE of 196 cycles across all datasets, outperforming all other models and demonstrating superior generalizability. This work represents an important step towards developing foundational models for battery degradation.

Enhancing Multiscale Simulations with Constitutive Relations-Aware Deep Operator Networks

Multiscale problems are widely observed across diverse domains in physics and engineering. Translating these problems into numerical simulations and solving them using numerical schemes, e.g. the finite element method, is costly due to the demand of solving initial boundary-value problems at multiple scales. On the other hand, multiscale finite element computations are commended for their ability to integrate micro-structural properties into macroscopic computational analyses using homogenization techniques. Recently, neural operator-based surrogate models have shown trustworthy performance for solving a wide range of partial differential equations. In this work, we propose a hybrid method in which we utilize deep operator networks for surrogate modeling of the microscale physics. This allows us to embed the constitutive relations of the microscale into the model architecture and to predict microscale strains and stresses based on the prescribed macroscale strain inputs. Furthermore, numerical homogenization is carried out to obtain the macroscale quantities of interest. We apply the proposed approach to quasi-static problems of solid mechanics. The results demonstrate that our constitutive relations-aware DeepONet can yield accurate solutions even when being confronted with a restricted dataset during model development.

Nonlinear model reduction for operator learning

Operator learning provides methods to approximate mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces. Deep operator networks (DeepONets) are a notable architecture in this field. Recently, an extension of DeepONet based on model reduction and neural networks, proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)-DeepONet, has been able to outperform other architectures in terms of accuracy for several benchmark tests. We extend this idea towards nonlinear model order reduction by proposing an efficient framework that combines neural networks with kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) for operator learning. Our results demonstrate the superior performance of KPCA-DeepONet over POD-DeepONet.

Assessment of the suitability of degradation models for the planning of CCTV inspections of sewer pipes

The degradation of sewer pipes poses significant economical, environmental and health concerns. The maintenance of such assets requires structured plans to perform inspections, which are more efficient when structural and environmental features are considered along with the results of previous inspection reports. The development of such plans requires degradation models that can be based on statistical and machine learning methods. This work proposes a methodology to assess their suitability to plan inspections considering three dimensions: accuracy metrics, ability to produce long-term degradation curves and explainability. Results suggest that although ensemble models yield the highest accuracy, they are unable to infer the long-term degradation of the pipes, whereas the Logistic Regression offers a slightly less accurate model that is able to produce consistent degradation curves with a high explainability. A use case is presented to demonstrate this methodology and the efficiency of model-based planning compared to the current inspection plan.