Soft Learning Probabilistic Circuits

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are prominent tractable probabilistic models, allowing for a range of exact inferences. This paper focuses on the main algorithm for training PCs, LearnSPN, a gold standard due to its efficiency, performance, and ease of use, in particular for tabular data. We show that LearnSPN is a greedy likelihood maximizer under mild assumptions. While inferences in PCs may use the entire circuit structure for processing queries, LearnSPN applies a hard method for learning them, propagating at each sum node a data point through one and only one of the children/edges as in a hard clustering process. We propose a new learning procedure named SoftLearn, that induces a PC using a soft clustering process. We investigate the effect of this learning-inference compatibility in PCs. Our experiments show that SoftLearn outperforms LearnSPN in many situations, yielding better likelihoods and arguably better samples. We also analyze comparable tractable models to highlight the differences between soft/hard learning and model querying.

Probabilistic Circuits with Constraints via Convex Optimization

This work addresses integrating probabilistic propositional logic constraints into the distribution encoded by a probabilistic circuit (PC). PCs are a class of tractable models that allow efficient computations (such as conditional and marginal probabilities) while achieving state-of-the-art performance in some domains. The proposed approach takes both a PC and constraints as inputs, and outputs a new PC that satisfies the constraints. This is done efficiently via convex optimization without the need to retrain the entire model. Empirical evaluations indicate that the combination of constraints and PCs can have multiple use cases, including the improvement of model performance under scarce or incomplete data, as well as the enforcement of machine learning fairness measures into the model without compromising model fitness. We believe that these ideas will open possibilities for multiple other applications involving the combination of logics and deep probabilistic models.

Toward Robust Uncertainty Estimation with Random Activation Functions

Deep neural networks are in the limelight of machine learning with their excellent performance in many data-driven applications. However, they can lead to inaccurate predictions when queried in out-of-distribution data points, which can have detrimental effects especially in sensitive domains, such as healthcare and transportation, where erroneous predictions can be very costly and/or dangerous. Subsequently, quantifying the uncertainty of the output of a neural network is often leveraged to evaluate the confidence of its predictions, and ensemble models have proved to be effective in measuring the uncertainty by utilizing the variance of predictions over a pool of models. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for uncertainty quantification via ensembles, called Random Activation Functions (RAFs) Ensemble, that aims at improving the ensemble diversity toward a more robust estimation, by accommodating each neural network with a different (random) activation function. Extensive empirical study demonstrates that RAFs Ensemble outperforms state-of-the-art ensemble uncertainty quantification methods on both synthetic and real-world datasets in a series of regression tasks.