Generalized Bayesian deep reinforcement learning

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) is a method that merges principles from Bayesian statistics and reinforcement learning to make optimal decisions in uncertain environments. Similar to other model-based RL approaches, it involves two key components: (1) Inferring the posterior distribution of the data generating process (DGP) modeling the true environment and (2) policy learning using the learned posterior. We propose to model the dynamics of the unknown environment through deep generative models assuming Markov dependence. In absence of likelihood functions for these models we train them by learning a generalized predictive-sequential (or prequential) scoring rule (SR) posterior. We use sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers to draw samples from this generalized Bayesian posterior distribution. In conjunction, to achieve scalability in the high dimensional parameter space of the neural networks, we use the gradient based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) kernels within SMC. To justify the use of the prequential scoring rule posterior we prove a Bernstein-von Misses type theorem. For policy learning, we propose expected Thompson sampling (ETS) to learn the optimal policy by maximizing the expected value function with respect to the posterior distribution. This improves upon traditional Thompson sampling (TS) and its extensions which utilize only one sample drawn from the posterior distribution. This improvement is studied both theoretically and using simulation studies assuming discrete action and state-space. Finally we successfully extend our setup for a challenging problem with continuous action space without theoretical guarantees.