Integrating Probabilistic Trees and Causal Networks for Clinical and Epidemiological Data

Healthcare decision-making requires not only accurate predictions but also insights into how factors influence patient outcomes. While traditional Machine Learning (ML) models excel at predicting outcomes, such as identifying high risk patients, they are limited in addressing what-if questions about interventions. This study introduces the Probabilistic Causal Fusion (PCF) framework, which integrates Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs) and Probability Trees (PTrees) to extend beyond predictions. PCF leverages causal relationships from CBNs to structure PTrees, enabling both the quantification of factor impacts and simulation of hypothetical interventions. PCF was validated on three real-world healthcare datasets i.e. MIMIC-IV, Framingham Heart Study, and Diabetes, chosen for their clinically diverse variables. It demonstrated predictive performance comparable to traditional ML models while providing additional causal reasoning capabilities. To enhance interpretability, PCF incorporates sensitivity analysis and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Sensitivity analysis quantifies the influence of causal parameters on outcomes such as Length of Stay (LOS), Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), and Diabetes, while SHAP highlights the importance of individual features in predictive modeling. By combining causal reasoning with predictive modeling, PCF bridges the gap between clinical intuition and data-driven insights. Its ability to uncover relationships between modifiable factors and simulate hypothetical scenarios provides clinicians with a clearer understanding of causal pathways. This approach supports more informed, evidence-based decision-making, offering a robust framework for addressing complex questions in diverse healthcare settings.

Investigating the validity of structure learning algorithms in identifying risk factors for intervention in patients with diabetes

Diabetes, a pervasive and enduring health challenge, imposes significant global implications on health, financial healthcare systems, and societal well-being. This study undertakes a comprehensive exploration of various structural learning algorithms to discern causal pathways amongst potential risk factors influencing diabetes progression. The methodology involves the application of these algorithms to relevant diabetes data, followed by the conversion of their output graphs into Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs), enabling predictive analysis and the evaluation of discrepancies in the effect of hypothetical interventions within our context-specific case study. This study highlights the substantial impact of algorithm selection on intervention outcomes. To consolidate insights from diverse algorithms, we employ a model-averaging technique that helps us obtain a unique causal model for diabetes derived from a varied set of structural learning algorithms. We also investigate how each of those individual graphs, as well as the average graph, compare to the structures elicited by a domain expert who categorised graph edges into high confidence, moderate, and low confidence types, leading into three individual graphs corresponding to the three levels of confidence. The resulting causal model and data are made available online, and serve as a valuable resource and a guide for informed decision-making by healthcare practitioners, offering a comprehensive understanding of the interactions between relevant risk factors and the effect of hypothetical interventions. Therefore, this research not only contributes to the academic discussion on diabetes, but also provides practical guidance for healthcare professionals in developing efficient intervention and risk management strategies.