Modeling Attention during Dimensional Shifts with Counterfactual and Delayed Feedback

Attention can be used to inform choice selection in contextual bandit tasks even when context features have not been previously experienced. One example of this is in dimensional shifts, where additional feature values are introduced and the relationship between features and outcomes can either be static or variable. Attentional mechanisms have been extensively studied in contextual bandit tasks where the feedback of choices is provided immediately, but less research has been done on tasks where feedback is delayed or in counterfactual feedback cases. Some methods have successfully modeled human attention with immediate feedback based on reward prediction errors (RPEs), though recent research raises questions of the applicability of RPEs onto more general attentional mechanisms. Alternative models suggest that information theoretic metrics can be used to model human attention, with broader applications to novel stimuli. In this paper, we compare two different methods for modeling how humans attend to specific features of decision making tasks, one that is based on calculating an information theoretic metric using a memory of past experiences, and another that is based on iteratively updating attention from reward prediction errors. We compare these models using simulations in a contextual bandit task with both intradimensional and extradimensional domain shifts, as well as immediate, delayed, and counterfactual feedback. We find that calculating an information theoretic metric over a history of experiences is best able to account for human-like behavior in tasks that shift dimensions and alter feedback presentation. These results indicate that information theoretic metrics of attentional mechanisms may be better suited than RPEs to predict human attention in decision making, though further studies of human behavior are necessary to support these results.

Improving the Prediction of Individual Engagement in Recommendations Using Cognitive Models

For public health programs with limited resources, the ability to predict how behaviors change over time and in response to interventions is crucial for deciding when and to whom interventions should be allocated. Using data from a real-world maternal health program, we demonstrate how a cognitive model based on Instance-Based Learning (IBL) Theory can augment existing purely computational approaches. Our findings show that, compared to general time-series forecasters (e.g., LSTMs), IBL models, which reflect human decision-making processes, better predict the dynamics of individuals' states. Additionally, IBL provides estimates of the volatility in individuals' states and their sensitivity to interventions, which can improve the efficiency of training of other time series models.