Learning to Identify Patients at Risk of Uncontrolled Hypertension Using Electronic Health Records Data

Hypertension is a major risk factor for stroke, cardiovascular disease, and end-stage renal disease, and its prevalence is expected to rise dramatically. Effective hypertension management is thus critical. A particular priority is decreasing the incidence of uncontrolled hypertension. Early identification of patients at risk for uncontrolled hypertension would allow targeted use of personalized, proactive treatments. We develop machine learning models (logistic regression and recurrent neural networks) to stratify patients with respect to the risk of exhibiting uncontrolled hypertension within the coming three-month period. We trained and tested models using EHR data from 14,407 and 3,009 patients, respectively. The best model achieved an AUROC of 0.719, outperforming the simple, competitive baseline of relying prediction based on the last BP measure alone (0.634). Perhaps surprisingly, recurrent neural networks did not outperform a simple logistic regression for this task, suggesting that linear models should be included as strong baselines for predictive tasks using EHR

An Analysis of Attention over Clinical Notes for Predictive Tasks

The shift to electronic medical records (EMRs) has engendered research into machine learning and natural language technologies to analyze patient records, and to predict from these clinical outcomes of interest. Two observations motivate our aims here. First, unstructured notes contained within EMR often contain key information, and hence should be exploited by models. Second, while strong predictive performance is important, interpretability of models is perhaps equally so for applications in this domain. Together, these points suggest that neural models for EMR may benefit from incorporation of attention over notes, which one may hope will both yield performance gains and afford transparency in predictions. In this work we perform experiments to explore this question using two EMR corpora and four different predictive tasks, that: (i) inclusion of attention mechanisms is critical for neural encoder modules that operate over notes fields in order to yield competitive performance, but, (ii) unfortunately, while these boost predictive performance, it is decidedly less clear whether they provide meaningful support for predictions.