A nudge to the truth: atom conservation as a hard constraint in models of atmospheric composition using an uncertainty-weighted correction

Computational models of atmospheric composition are not always physically consistent. For example, not all models respect fundamental conservation laws such as conservation of atoms in an interconnected chemical system. In well performing models, these nonphysical deviations are often ignored because they are frequently minor, and thus only need a small nudge to perfectly conserve mass. Here we introduce a method that anchors a prediction from any numerical model to physically consistent hard constraints, nudging concentrations to the nearest solution that respects the conservation laws. This closed-form model-agnostic correction uses a single matrix operation to minimally perturb the predicted concentrations to ensure that atoms are conserved to machine precision. To demonstrate this approach, we train a gradient boosting decision tree ensemble to emulate a small reference model of ozone photochemistry and test the effect of the correction on accurate but non-conservative predictions. The nudging approach minimally perturbs the already well-predicted results for most species, but decreases the accuracy of important oxidants, including radicals. We develop a weighted extension of this nudging approach that considers the uncertainty and magnitude of each species in the correction. This species-level weighting approach is essential to accurately predict important low concentration species such as radicals. We find that applying the uncertainty-weighted correction to the nonphysical predictions slightly improves overall accuracy, by nudging the predictions to a more likely mass-conserving solution.

Discovering New Interpretable Conservation Laws as Sparse Invariants

Discovering conservation laws for a given dynamical system is important but challenging. In a theorist setup (differential equations and basis functions are both known), we propose the Sparse Invariant Detector (SID), an algorithm that auto-discovers conservation laws from differential equations. Its algorithmic simplicity allows robustness and interpretability of the discovered conserved quantities. We show that SID is able to rediscover known and even discover new conservation laws in a variety of systems. For two examples in fluid mechanics and atmospheric chemistry, SID discovers 14 and 3 conserved quantities, respectively, where only 12 and 2 were previously known to domain experts.