Nature versus nurture in galaxy formation: the effect of environment on star formation with causal machine learning

Understanding how galaxies form and evolve is at the heart of modern astronomy. With the advent of large-scale surveys and simulations, remarkable progress has been made in the last few decades. Despite this, the physical processes behind the phenomena, and particularly their importance, remain far from known, as correlations have primarily been established rather than the underlying causality. We address this challenge by applying the causal inference framework. Specifically, we tackle the fundamental open question of whether galaxy formation and evolution depends more on nature (i.e., internal processes) or nurture (i.e., external processes), by estimating the causal effect of environment on star-formation rate in the IllustrisTNG simulations. To do so, we develop a comprehensive causal model and employ cutting-edge techniques from epidemiology to overcome the long-standing problem of disentangling nature and nurture. We find that the causal effect is negative and substantial, with environment suppressing the SFR by a maximal factor of $\sim100$. While the overall effect at $z=0$ is negative, in the early universe, environment is discovered to have a positive impact, boosting star formation by a factor of $\sim10$ at $z\sim1$ and by even greater amounts at higher redshifts. Furthermore, we show that: (i) nature also plays an important role, as ignoring it underestimates the causal effect in intermediate-density environments by a factor of $\sim2$, (ii) controlling for the stellar mass at a snapshot in time, as is common in the literature, is not only insufficient to disentangle nature and nurture but actually has an adverse effect, though (iii) stellar mass is an adequate proxy of the effects of nature. Finally, this work may prove a useful blueprint for extracting causal insights in other fields that deal with dynamical systems with closed feedback loops, such as the Earth's climate.

LSTM and CNN application for core-collapse supernova search in gravitational wave real data

$Context.$ Core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) are expected to emit gravitational wave signals that could be detected by current and future generation interferometers within the Milky Way and nearby galaxies. The stochastic nature of the signal arising from CCSNe requires alternative detection methods to matched filtering. $Aims.$ We aim to show the potential of machine learning (ML) for multi-label classification of different CCSNe simulated signals and noise transients using real data. We compared the performance of 1D and 2D convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on single and multiple detector data. For the first time, we tested multi-label classification also with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. $Methods.$ We applied a search and classification procedure for CCSNe signals, using an event trigger generator, the Wavelet Detection Filter (WDF), coupled with ML. We used time series and time-frequency representations of the data as inputs to the ML models. To compute classification accuracies, we simultaneously injected, at detectable distance of 1\,kpc, CCSN waveforms, obtained from recent hydrodynamical simulations of neutrino-driven core-collapse, onto interferometer noise from the O2 LIGO and Virgo science run. $Results.$ We compared the performance of the three models on single detector data. We then merged the output of the models for single detector classification of noise and astrophysical transients, obtaining overall accuracies for LIGO ($\sim99\%$) and ($\sim80\%$) for Virgo. We extended our analysis to the multi-detector case using triggers coincident among the three ITFs and achieved an accuracy of $\sim98\%$.