Generative Discrete Event Process Simulation for Hidden Markov Models to Predict Competitor Time-to-Market

We study the challenge of predicting the time at which a competitor product, such as a novel high-capacity EV battery or a new car model, will be available to customers; as new information is obtained, this time-to-market estimate is revised. Our scenario is as follows: We assume that the product is under development at a Firm B, which is a competitor to Firm A; as they are in the same industry, Firm A has a relatively good understanding of the processes and steps required to produce the product. While Firm B tries to keep its activities hidden (think of stealth-mode for start-ups), Firm A is nevertheless able to gain periodic insights by observing what type of resources Firm B is using. We show how Firm A can build a model that predicts when Firm B will be ready to sell its product; the model leverages knowledge of the underlying processes and required resources to build a Parallel Discrete Simulation (PDES)-based process model that it then uses as a generative model to train a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). We study the question of how many resource observations Firm A requires in order to accurately assess the current state of development at Firm B. In order to gain general insights into the capabilities of this approach, we study the effect of different process graph densities, different densities of the resource-activity maps, etc., and also scaling properties as we increase the number resource counts. We find that in most cases, the HMM achieves a prediction accuracy of 70 to 80 percent after 20 (daily) observations of a production process that lasts 150 days on average and we characterize the effects of different problem instance densities on this prediction accuracy. Our results give insight into the level of market knowledge required for accurate and early time-to-market prediction.

BB-ML: Basic Block Performance Prediction using Machine Learning Techniques

Recent years have seen the adoption of Machine Learning (ML) techniques to predict the performance of large-scale applications, mostly at a coarse level. In contrast, we propose to use ML techniques for performance prediction at much finer granularity, namely at the levels of Basic Block (BB), which are the single entry-single exit code blocks that are used as analysis tools by all compilers to break down a large code into manageable pieces. Utilizing ML and BB analysis together can enable scalable hardware-software co-design beyond the current state of the art. In this work, we extrapolate the basic block execution counts of GPU applications for large inputs sizes from the counts of smaller input sizes of the same application. We employ two ML models, a Poisson Neural Network (PNN) and a Bayesian Regularization Backpropagation Neural Network (BR-BPNN). We train both models using the lowest input values of the application and random input values to predict basic block counts. Results show that our models accurately predict the basic block execution counts of 16 benchmark applications. For PNN and BR-BPNN models, we achieve an average accuracy of 93.5% and 95.6%, respectively, while extrapolating the basic block counts for large input sets when the model is trained using smaller input sets. Additionally, the models show an average accuracy of 97.7% and 98.1%, respectively, while predicting basic block counts on random instances.