Enhancing Battery Storage Energy Arbitrage with Deep Reinforcement Learning and Time-Series Forecasting

Energy arbitrage is one of the most profitable sources of income for battery operators, generating revenues by buying and selling electricity at different prices. Forecasting these revenues is challenging due to the inherent uncertainty of electricity prices. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) emerged in recent years as a promising tool, able to cope with uncertainty by training on large quantities of historical data. However, without access to future electricity prices, DRL agents can only react to the currently observed price and not learn to plan battery dispatch. Therefore, in this study, we combine DRL with time-series forecasting methods from deep learning to enhance the performance on energy arbitrage. We conduct a case study using price data from Alberta, Canada that is characterized by irregular price spikes and highly non-stationary. This data is challenging to forecast even when state-of-the-art deep learning models consisting of convolutional layers, recurrent layers, and attention modules are deployed. Our results show that energy arbitrage with DRL-enabled battery control still significantly benefits from these imperfect predictions, but only if predictors for several horizons are combined. Grouping multiple predictions for the next 24-hour window, accumulated rewards increased by 60% for deep Q-networks (DQN) compared to the experiments without forecasts. We hypothesize that multiple predictors, despite their imperfections, convey useful information regarding the future development of electricity prices through a "majority vote" principle, enabling the DRL agent to learn more profitable control policies.

Optimal Economic Gas Turbine Dispatch with Deep Reinforcement Learning

Dispatching strategies for gas turbines (GTs) are changing in modern electricity grids. A growing incorporation of intermittent renewable energy requires GTs to operate more but shorter cycles and more frequently on partial loads. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has recently emerged as a tool that can cope with this development and dispatch GTs economically. The key advantages of DRL are a model-free optimization and the ability to handle uncertainties, such as those introduced by varying loads or renewable energy production. In this study, three popular DRL algorithms are implemented for an economic GT dispatch problem on a case study in Alberta, Canada. We highlight the benefits of DRL by incorporating an existing thermodynamic software provided by Siemens Energy into the environment model and by simulating uncertainty via varying electricity prices, loads, and ambient conditions. Among the tested algorithms and baseline methods, Deep Q-Networks (DQN) obtained the highest rewards while Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) was the most sample efficient. We further propose and implement a method to assign GT operation and maintenance cost dynamically based on operating hours and cycles. Compared to existing methods, our approach better approximates the true cost of modern GT dispatch and hence leads to more realistic policies.