Safe Active Learning for Gaussian Differential Equations

Gaussian Process differential equations (GPODE) have recently gained momentum due to their ability to capture dynamics behavior of systems and also represent uncertainty in predictions. Prior work has described the process of training the hyperparameters and, thereby, calibrating GPODE to data. How to design efficient algorithms to collect data for training GPODE models is still an open field of research. Nevertheless high-quality training data is key for model performance. Furthermore, data collection leads to time-cost and financial-cost and might in some areas even be safety critical to the system under test. Therefore, algorithms for safe and efficient data collection are central for building high quality GPODE models. Our novel Safe Active Learning (SAL) for GPODE algorithm addresses this challenge by suggesting a mechanism to propose efficient and non-safety-critical data to collect. SAL GPODE does so by sequentially suggesting new data, measuring it and updating the GPODE model with the new data. In this way, subsequent data points are iteratively suggested. The core of our SAL GPODE algorithm is a constrained optimization problem maximizing information of new data for GPODE model training constrained by the safety of the underlying system. We demonstrate our novel SAL GPODE's superiority compared to a standard, non-active way of measuring new data on two relevant examples.

Predicting discrete-time bifurcations with deep learning

Many natural and man-made systems are prone to critical transitions -- abrupt and potentially devastating changes in dynamics. Deep learning classifiers can provide an early warning signal (EWS) for critical transitions by learning generic features of bifurcations (dynamical instabilities) from large simulated training data sets. So far, classifiers have only been trained to predict continuous-time bifurcations, ignoring rich dynamics unique to discrete-time bifurcations. Here, we train a deep learning classifier to provide an EWS for the five local discrete-time bifurcations of codimension-1. We test the classifier on simulation data from discrete-time models used in physiology, economics and ecology, as well as experimental data of spontaneously beating chick-heart aggregates that undergo a period-doubling bifurcation. The classifier outperforms commonly used EWS under a wide range of noise intensities and rates of approach to the bifurcation. It also predicts the correct bifurcation in most cases, with particularly high accuracy for the period-doubling, Neimark-Sacker and fold bifurcations. Deep learning as a tool for bifurcation prediction is still in its nascence and has the potential to transform the way we monitor systems for critical transitions.