Powerformer: A Transformer with Weighted Causal Attention for Time-series Forecasting

Transformers have recently shown strong performance in time-series forecasting, but their all-to-all attention mechanism overlooks the (temporal) causal and often (temporally) local nature of data. We introduce Powerformer, a novel Transformer variant that replaces noncausal attention weights with causal weights that are reweighted according to a smooth heavy-tailed decay. This simple yet effective modification endows the model with an inductive bias favoring temporally local dependencies, while still allowing sufficient flexibility to learn the unique correlation structure of each dataset. Our empirical results demonstrate that Powerformer not only achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on public time-series benchmarks, but also that it offers improved interpretability of attention patterns. Our analyses show that the model's locality bias is amplified during training, demonstrating an interplay between time-series data and power-law-based attention. These findings highlight the importance of domain-specific modifications to the Transformer architecture for time-series forecasting, and they establish Powerformer as a strong, efficient, and principled baseline for future research and real-world applications.

Neural equilibria for long-term prediction of nonlinear conservation laws

We introduce Neural Discrete Equilibrium (NeurDE), a machine learning (ML) approach for long-term forecasting of flow phenomena that relies on a "lifting" of physical conservation laws into the framework of kinetic theory. The kinetic formulation provides an excellent structure for ML algorithms by separating nonlinear, non-local physics into a nonlinear but local relaxation to equilibrium and a linear non-local transport. This separation allows the ML to focus on the local nonlinear components while addressing the simpler linear transport with efficient classical numerical algorithms. To accomplish this, we design an operator network that maps macroscopic observables to equilibrium states in a manner that maximizes entropy, yielding expressive BGK-type collisions. By incorporating our surrogate equilibrium into the lattice Boltzmann (LB) algorithm, we achieve accurate flow forecasts for a wide range of challenging flows. We show that NeurDE enables accurate prediction of compressible flows, including supersonic flows, while tracking shocks over hundreds of time steps, using a small velocity lattice-a heretofore unattainable feat without expensive numerical root finding.