Fusion of Spatio-Temporal and Multi-Scale Frequency Features for Dry Electrodes MI-EEG Decoding

Dry-electrode Motor Imagery Electroencephalography (MI-EEG) enables fast, comfortable, real-world Brain Computer Interface by eliminating gels and shortening setup for at-home and wearable use.However, dry recordings pose three main issues: lower Signal-to-Noise Ratio with more baseline drift and sudden transients; weaker and noisier data with poor phase alignment across trials; and bigger variances between sessions. These drawbacks lead to larger data distribution shift, making features less stable for MI-EEG tasks.To address these problems, we introduce STGMFM, a tri-branch framework tailored for dry-electrode MI-EEG, which models complementary spatio-temporal dependencies via dual graph orders, and captures robust envelope dynamics with a multi-scale frequency mixing branch, motivated by the observation that amplitude envelopes are less sensitive to contact variability than instantaneous waveforms. Physiologically meaningful connectivity priors guide learning, and decision-level fusion consolidates a noise-tolerant consensus. On our collected dry-electrode MI-EEG, STGMFM consistently surpasses competitive CNN/Transformer/graph baselines. Codes are available at https://github.com/Tianyi-325/STGMFM.

Distribution-informed Online Conformal Prediction

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data distribution shifts in fully adversarial environments, resulting in overly conservative prediction sets. We propose Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP), an online conformal prediction algorithm incorporating underlying data pattern into the update rule. Through estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores, COP produces tighter prediction sets when predictable pattern exists, while retaining valid coverage guarantees even when estimates are inaccurate. We establish a joint bound on coverage and regret, which further confirms the validity of our approach. We also prove that COP achieves distribution-free, finite-sample coverage under arbitrary learning rates and can converge when scores are $i.i.d.$. The experimental results also show that COP can achieve valid coverage and construct shorter prediction intervals than other baselines.

Error-quantified Conformal Inference for Time Series

Uncertainty quantification in time series prediction is challenging due to the temporal dependence and distribution shift on sequential data. Conformal inference provides a pivotal and flexible instrument for assessing the uncertainty of machine learning models through prediction sets. Recently, a series of online conformal inference methods updated thresholds of prediction sets by performing online gradient descent on a sequence of quantile loss functions. A drawback of such methods is that they only use the information of revealed non-conformity scores via miscoverage indicators but ignore error quantification, namely the distance between the non-conformity score and the current threshold. To accurately leverage the dynamic of miscoverage error, we propose \textit{Error-quantified Conformal Inference} (ECI) by smoothing the quantile loss function. ECI introduces a continuous and adaptive feedback scale with the miscoverage error, rather than simple binary feedback in existing methods. We establish a long-term coverage guarantee for ECI under arbitrary dependence and distribution shift. The extensive experimental results show that ECI can achieve valid miscoverage control and output tighter prediction sets than other baselines.