Invariant Measures in Time-Delay Coordinates for Unique Dynamical System Identification

Invariant measures are widely used to compare chaotic dynamical systems, as they offer robustness to noisy data, uncertain initial conditions, and irregular sampling. However, large classes of systems with distinct transient dynamics can still exhibit the same asymptotic statistical behavior, which poses challenges when invariant measures alone are used to perform system identification. Motivated by Takens' seminal embedding theory, we propose studying invariant measures in time-delay coordinates, which exhibit enhanced sensitivity to the underlying dynamics. Our first result demonstrates that a single invariant measure in time-delay coordinates can be used to perform system identification up to a topological conjugacy. This result already surpasses the capabilities of invariant measures in the original state coordinate. Continuing to explore the power of delay-coordinates, we eliminate all ambiguity from the conjugacy relation by showing that unique system identification can be achieved using additional invariant measures in time-delay coordinates constructed from different observables. Our findings improve the effectiveness of invariant measures in system identification and broaden the scope of measure-theoretic approaches to modeling dynamical systems.

Measure-Theoretic Time-Delay Embedding

The celebrated Takens' embedding theorem provides a theoretical foundation for reconstructing the full state of a dynamical system from partial observations. However, the classical theorem assumes that the underlying system is deterministic and that observations are noise-free, limiting its applicability in real-world scenarios. Motivated by these limitations, we rigorously establish a measure-theoretic generalization that adopts an Eulerian description of the dynamics and recasts the embedding as a pushforward map between probability spaces. Our mathematical results leverage recent advances in optimal transportation theory. Building on our novel measure-theoretic time-delay embedding theory, we have developed a new computational framework that forecasts the full state of a dynamical system from time-lagged partial observations, engineered with better robustness to handle sparse and noisy data. We showcase the efficacy and versatility of our approach through several numerical examples, ranging from the classic Lorenz-63 system to large-scale, real-world applications such as NOAA sea surface temperature forecasting and ERA5 wind field reconstruction.

Generative Modeling of Time-Dependent Densities via Optimal Transport and Projection Pursuit

Motivated by the computational difficulties incurred by popular deep learning algorithms for the generative modeling of temporal densities, we propose a cheap alternative which requires minimal hyperparameter tuning and scales favorably to high dimensional problems. In particular, we use a projection-based optimal transport solver [Meng et al., 2019] to join successive samples and subsequently use transport splines [Chewi et al., 2020] to interpolate the evolving density. When the sampling frequency is sufficiently high, the optimal maps are close to the identity and are thus computationally efficient to compute. Moreover, the training process is highly parallelizable as all optimal maps are independent and can thus be learned simultaneously. Finally, the approach is based solely on numerical linear algebra rather than minimizing a nonconvex objective function, allowing us to easily analyze and control the algorithm. We present several numerical experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets to demonstrate the efficiency of our method. In particular, these experiments show that the proposed approach is highly competitive compared with state-of-the-art normalizing flows conditioned on time across a wide range of dimensionalities.