The problem with probabilistic DAG automata for semantic graphs

Semantic representations in the form of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) have been introduced in recent years, and to model them, we need probabilistic models of DAGs. One model that has attracted some attention is the DAG automaton, but it has not been studied as a probabilistic model. We show that some DAG automata cannot be made into useful probabilistic models by the nearly universal strategy of assigning weights to transitions. The problem affects single-rooted, multi-rooted, and unbounded-degree variants of DAG automata, and appears to be pervasive. It does not affect planar variants, but these are problematic for other reasons.

Prediction of future hospital admissions - what is the tradeoff between specificity and accuracy?

Large amounts of electronic medical records collected by hospitals across the developed world offer unprecedented possibilities for knowledge discovery using computer based data mining and machine learning. Notwithstanding significant research efforts, the use of this data in the prediction of disease development has largely been disappointing. In this paper we examine in detail a recently proposed method which has in preliminary experiments demonstrated highly promising results on real-world data. We scrutinize the authors' claims that the proposed model is scalable and investigate whether the tradeoff between prediction specificity (i.e. the ability of the model to predict a wide number of different ailments) and accuracy (i.e. the ability of the model to make the correct prediction) is practically viable. Our experiments conducted on a data corpus of nearly 3,000,000 admissions support the authors' expectations and demonstrate that the high prediction accuracy is maintained well even when the number of admission types explicitly included in the model is increased to account for 98% of all admissions in the corpus. Thus several promising directions for future work are highlighted.