Nonlinear Dynamical Modeling of Human Intracranial Brain Activity with Flexible Inference

Dynamical modeling of multisite human intracranial neural recordings is essential for developing neurotechnologies such as brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). Linear dynamical models are widely used for this purpose due to their interpretability and their suitability for BCIs. In particular, these models enable flexible real-time inference, even in the presence of missing neural samples, which often occur in wireless BCIs. However, neural activity can exhibit nonlinear structure that is not captured by linear models. Furthermore, while recurrent neural network models can capture nonlinearity, their inference does not directly address handling missing observations. To address this gap, recent work introduced DFINE, a deep learning framework that integrates neural networks with linear state-space models to capture nonlinearities while enabling flexible inference. However, DFINE was developed for intracortical recordings that measure localized neuronal populations. Here we extend DFINE to modeling of multisite human intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) recordings. We find that DFINE significantly outperforms linear state-space models (LSSMs) in forecasting future neural activity. Furthermore, DFINE matches or exceeds the accuracy of a gated recurrent unit (GRU) model in neural forecasting, indicating that a linear dynamical backbone, when paired and jointly trained with nonlinear neural networks, can effectively describe the dynamics of iEEG signals while also enabling flexible inference. Additionally, DFINE handles missing observations more robustly than the baselines, demonstrating its flexible inference and utility for BCIs. Finally, DFINE's advantage over LSSM is more pronounced in high gamma spectral bands. Taken together, these findings highlight DFINE as a strong and flexible framework for modeling human iEEG dynamics, with potential applications in next-generation BCIs.

condLSTM-Q: A novel deep learning model for predicting Covid-19 mortality in fine geographical Scale

Predictive models with a focus on different spatial-temporal scales benefit governments and healthcare systems to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we present the conditional Long Short-Term Memory networks with Quantile output (condLSTM-Q), a well-performing model for making quantile predictions on COVID-19 death tolls at the county level with a two-week forecast window. This fine geographical scale is a rare but useful feature in publicly available predictive models, which would especially benefit state-level officials to coordinate resources within the state. The quantile predictions from condLSTM-Q inform people about the distribution of the predicted death tolls, allowing better evaluation of possible trajectories of the severity. Given the scalability and generalizability of neural network models, this model could incorporate additional data sources with ease, and could be further developed to generate other useful predictions such as new cases or hospitalizations intuitively.