Predicting Customer Lifetime Value Using Recurrent Neural Net

This paper introduces a recurrent neural network approach for predicting user lifetime value in Software as a Service (SaaS) applications. The approach accounts for three connected time dimensions. These dimensions are the user cohort (the date the user joined), user age-in-system (the time since the user joined the service) and the calendar date the user is an age-in-system (i.e., contemporaneous information).The recurrent neural networks use a multi-cell architecture, where each cell resembles a long short-term memory neural network. The approach is applied to predicting both acquisition (new users) and rolling (existing user) lifetime values for a variety of time horizons. It is found to significantly improve median absolute percent error versus light gradient boost models and Buy Until You Die models.

Adversarial Validation Approach to Concept Drift Problem in Automated Machine Learning Systems

In automated machine learning systems, concept drift in input data is one of the main challenges. It deteriorates model performance on new data over time. Previous research on concept drift mostly proposed model retraining after observing performance decreases. However, this approach is suboptimal because the system fixes the problem only after suffering from poor performance on new data. Here, we introduce an adversarial validation approach to concept drift problems in automated machine learning systems. With our approach, the system detects concept drift in new data before making inference, trains a model, and produces predictions adapted to the new data. We show that our approach addresses concept drift effectively with the AutoML3 Lifelong Machine Learning challenge data as well as in Uber's internal automated machine learning system, MaLTA.

CausalML: Python Package for Causal Machine Learning

CausalML is a Python implementation of algorithms related to causal inference and machine learning. Algorithms combining causal inference and machine learning have been a trending topic in recent years. This package tries to bridge the gap between theoretical work on methodology and practical applications by making a collection of methods in this field available in Python. This paper introduces the key concepts, scope, and use cases of this package.