PPGF: Probability Pattern-Guided Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting (TSF) is an essential branch of machine learning with various applications. Most methods for TSF focus on constructing different networks to extract better information and improve performance. However, practical application data contain different internal mechanisms, resulting in a mixture of multiple patterns. That is, the model's ability to fit different patterns is different and generates different errors. In order to solve this problem, we propose an end-to-end framework, namely probability pattern-guided time series forecasting (PPGF). PPGF reformulates the TSF problem as a forecasting task guided by probabilistic pattern classification. Firstly, we propose the grouping strategy to approach forecasting problems as classification and alleviate the impact of data imbalance on classification. Secondly, we predict in the corresponding class interval to guarantee the consistency of classification and forecasting. In addition, True Class Probability (TCP) is introduced to pay more attention to the difficult samples to improve the classification accuracy. Detailedly, PPGF classifies the different patterns to determine which one the target value may belong to and estimates it accurately in the corresponding interval. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, we conduct extensive experiments on real-world datasets, and PPGF achieves significant performance improvements over several baseline methods. Furthermore, the effectiveness of TCP and the necessity of consistency between classification and forecasting are proved in the experiments. All data and codes are available online: https://github.com/syrGitHub/PPGF.

OpFlowTalker: Realistic and Natural Talking Face Generation via Optical Flow Guidance

Creating realistic, natural, and lip-readable talking face videos remains a formidable challenge. Previous research primarily concentrated on generating and aligning single-frame images while overlooking the smoothness of frame-to-frame transitions and temporal dependencies. This often compromised visual quality and effects in practical settings, particularly when handling complex facial data and audio content, which frequently led to semantically incongruent visual illusions. Specifically, synthesized videos commonly featured disorganized lip movements, making them difficult to understand and recognize. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces the application of optical flow to guide facial image generation, enhancing inter-frame continuity and semantic consistency. We propose "OpFlowTalker", a novel approach that utilizes predicted optical flow changes from audio inputs rather than direct image predictions. This method smooths image transitions and aligns changes with semantic content. Moreover, it employs a sequence fusion technique to replace the independent generation of single frames, thus preserving contextual information and maintaining temporal coherence. We also developed an optical flow synchronization module that regulates both full-face and lip movements, optimizing visual synthesis by balancing regional dynamics. Furthermore, we introduce a Visual Text Consistency Score (VTCS) that accurately measures lip-readability in synthesized videos. Extensive empirical evidence validates the effectiveness of our approach.