MoHETS: Long-term Time Series Forecasting with Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts

Real-world multivariate time series can exhibit intricate multi-scale structures, including global trends, local periodicities, and non-stationary regimes, which makes long-horizon forecasting challenging. Although sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) approaches improve scalability and specialization, they typically rely on homogeneous MLP experts that poorly capture the diverse temporal dynamics of time series data. We address these limitations with MoHETS, an encoder-only Transformer that integrates sparse Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts (MoHE) layers. MoHE routes temporal patches to a small subset of expert networks, combining a shared depthwise-convolution expert for sequence-level continuity with routed Fourier-based experts for patch-level periodic structures. MoHETS further improves robustness to non-stationary dynamics by incorporating exogenous information via cross-attention over covariate patch embeddings. Finally, we replace parameter-heavy linear projection heads with a lightweight convolutional patch decoder, improving parameter efficiency, reducing training instability, and allowing a single model to generalize across arbitrary forecast horizons. We validate across seven multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons, with MoHETS consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance, reducing the average MSE by $12\%$ compared to strong recent baselines, demonstrating effective heterogeneous specialization for long-term forecasting.

From Glucose Patterns to Health Outcomes: A Generalizable Foundation Model for Continuous Glucose Monitor Data Analysis

Recent advances in self-supervised learning enabled novel medical AI models, known as foundation models (FMs) that offer great potential for characterizing health from diverse biomedical data. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provides rich, temporal data on glycemic patterns, but its full potential for predicting broader health outcomes remains underutilized. Here, we present GluFormer, a generative foundation model on biomedical temporal data based on a transformer architecture, and trained on over 10 million CGM measurements from 10,812 non-diabetic individuals. We tokenized the CGM training data and trained GluFormer using next token prediction in a generative, autoregressive manner. We demonstrate that GluFormer generalizes effectively to 15 different external datasets, including 4936 individuals across 5 different geographical regions, 6 different CGM devices, and several metabolic disorders, including normoglycemic, prediabetic, and diabetic populations, as well as those with gestational diabetes and obesity. GluFormer produces embeddings which outperform traditional CGM analysis tools, and achieves high Pearson correlations in predicting clinical parameters such as HbA1c, liver-related parameters, blood lipids, and sleep-related indices. Notably, GluFormer can also predict onset of future health outcomes even 4 years in advance. We also show that CGM embeddings from pre-intervention periods in Randomized Clinical Trials (RCTs) outperform other methods in predicting primary and secondary outcomes. When integrating dietary data into GluFormer, we show that the enhanced model can accurately generate CGM data based only on dietary intake data, simulate outcomes of dietary interventions, and predict individual responses to specific foods. Overall, we show that GluFormer accurately predicts health outcomes which generalize across different populations metabolic conditions.