Physics-constrained Gaussian Processes for Predicting Shockwave Hugoniot Curves

A physics-constrained Gaussian Process regression framework is developed for predicting shocked material states along the Hugoniot curve using data from a small number of shockwave simulations. The proposed Gaussian process employs a probabilistic Taylor series expansion in conjunction with the Rankine-Hugoniot jump conditions between the various shocked material states to construct a thermodynamically consistent covariance function. This leads to the formulation of an optimization problem over a small number of interpretable hyperparameters and enables the identification of regime transitions, from a leading elastic wave to trailing plastic and phase transformation waves. This work is motivated by the need to investigate shock-driven material response for materials discovery and for offering mechanistic insights in regimes where experimental characterizations and simulations are costly. The proposed methodology relies on large-scale molecular dynamics which are an accurate but expensive computational alternative to experiments. Under these constraints, the proposed methodology establishes Hugoniot curves from a limited number of molecular dynamics simulations. We consider silicon carbide as a representative material and atomic-level simulations are performed using a reverse ballistic approach together with appropriate interatomic potentials. The framework reproduces the Hugoniot curve with satisfactory accuracy while also quantifying the uncertainty in the predictions using the Gaussian Process posterior.

Joint space-time wind field data extrapolation and uncertainty quantification using nonparametric Bayesian dictionary learning

A methodology is developed, based on nonparametric Bayesian dictionary learning, for joint space-time wind field data extrapolation and estimation of related statistics by relying on limited/incomplete measurements. Specifically, utilizing sparse/incomplete measured data, a time-dependent optimization problem is formulated for determining the expansion coefficients of an associated low-dimensional representation of the stochastic wind field. Compared to an alternative, standard, compressive sampling treatment of the problem, the developed methodology exhibits the following advantages. First, the Bayesian formulation enables also the quantification of the uncertainty in the estimates. Second, the requirement in standard CS-based applications for an a priori selection of the expansion basis is circumvented. Instead, this is done herein in an adaptive manner based on the acquired data. Overall, the methodology exhibits enhanced extrapolation accuracy, even in cases of high-dimensional data of arbitrary form, and of relatively large extrapolation distances. Thus, it can be used, potentially, in a wide range of wind engineering applications where various constraints dictate the use of a limited number of sensors. The efficacy of the methodology is demonstrated by considering two case studies. The first relates to the extrapolation of simulated wind velocity records consistent with a prescribed joint wavenumber-frequency power spectral density in a three-dimensional domain (2D and time). The second pertains to the extrapolation of four-dimensional (3D and time) boundary layer wind tunnel experimental data that exhibit significant spatial variability and non-Gaussian characteristics.

Bayesian neural networks for predicting uncertainty in full-field material response

Stress and material deformation field predictions are among the most important tasks in computational mechanics. These predictions are typically made by solving the governing equations of continuum mechanics using finite element analysis, which can become computationally prohibitive considering complex microstructures and material behaviors. Machine learning (ML) methods offer potentially cost effective surrogates for these applications. However, existing ML surrogates are either limited to low-dimensional problems and/or do not provide uncertainty estimates in the predictions. This work proposes an ML surrogate framework for stress field prediction and uncertainty quantification for diverse materials microstructures. A modified Bayesian U-net architecture is employed to provide a data-driven image-to-image mapping from initial microstructure to stress field with prediction (epistemic) uncertainty estimates. The Bayesian posterior distributions for the U-net parameters are estimated using three state-of-the-art inference algorithms: the posterior sampling-based Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method and two variational approaches, the Monte-Carlo Dropout method and the Bayes by Backprop algorithm. A systematic comparison of the predictive accuracy and uncertainty estimates for these methods is performed for a fiber reinforced composite material and polycrystalline microstructure application. It is shown that the proposed methods yield predictions of high accuracy compared to the FEA solution, while uncertainty estimates depend on the inference approach. Generally, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Bayes by Backprop methods provide consistent uncertainty estimates. Uncertainty estimates from Monte Carlo Dropout, on the other hand, are more difficult to interpret and depend strongly on the method's design.