Urban traffic analysis and forecasting through shared Koopman eigenmodes

Predicting traffic flow in data-scarce cities is challenging due to limited historical data. To address this, we leverage transfer learning by identifying periodic patterns common to data-rich cities using a customized variant of Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD): constrained Hankelized DMD (TrHDMD). This method uncovers common eigenmodes (urban heartbeats) in traffic patterns and transfers them to data-scarce cities, significantly enhancing prediction performance. TrHDMD reduces the need for extensive training datasets by utilizing prior knowledge from other cities. By applying Koopman operator theory to multi-city loop detector data, we identify stable, interpretable, and time-invariant traffic modes. Injecting ``urban heartbeats'' into forecasting tasks improves prediction accuracy and has the potential to enhance traffic management strategies for cities with varying data infrastructures. Our work introduces cross-city knowledge transfer via shared Koopman eigenmodes, offering actionable insights and reliable forecasts for data-scarce urban environments.

Exact Stochastic Second Order Deep Learning

Optimization in Deep Learning is mainly dominated by first-order methods which are built around the central concept of backpropagation. Second-order optimization methods, which take into account the second-order derivatives are far less used despite superior theoretical properties. This inadequacy of second-order methods stems from its exorbitant computational cost, poor performance, and the ineluctable non-convex nature of Deep Learning. Several attempts were made to resolve the inadequacy of second-order optimization without reaching a cost-effective solution, much less an exact solution. In this work, we show that this long-standing problem in Deep Learning could be solved in the stochastic case, given a suitable regularization of the neural network. Interestingly, we provide an expression of the stochastic Hessian and its exact eigenvalues. We provide a closed-form formula for the exact stochastic second-order Newton direction, we solve the non-convexity issue and adjust our exact solution to favor flat minima through regularization and spectral adjustment. We test our exact stochastic second-order method on popular datasets and reveal its adequacy for Deep Learning.