Latency and Ordering Effects in Online Decisions

Online decision systems routinely operate under delayed feedback and order-sensitive (noncommutative) dynamics: actions affect which observations arrive, and in what sequence. Taking a Bregman divergence $D_Φ$ as the loss benchmark, we prove that the excess benchmark loss admits a structured lower bound $L \ge L_{\mathrm{ideal}} + g_1(λ) + g_2(\varepsilon_\star) + g_{12}(λ,\varepsilon_\star) - D_{\mathrm{ncx}}$, where $g_1$ and $g_2$ are calibrated penalties for latency and order-sensitivity, $g_{12}$ captures their geometric interaction, and $D_{\mathrm{ncx}}\ge 0$ is a nonconvexity/approximation penalty that vanishes under convex Legendre assumptions. We extend this inequality to prox-regular and weakly convex settings, obtaining robust guarantees beyond the convex case. We also give an operational recipe for estimating and monitoring the four terms via simple $2\times 2$ randomized experiments and streaming diagnostics (effective sample size, clipping rate, interaction heatmaps). The framework packages heterogeneous latency, noncommutativity, and implementation-gap effects into a single interpretable lower-bound statement that can be stress-tested and tuned in real-world systems.

Domain adaption and physical constrains transfer learning for shale gas production

Effective prediction of shale gas production is crucial for strategic reservoir development. However, in new shale gas blocks, two main challenges are encountered: (1) the occurrence of negative transfer due to insufficient data, and (2) the limited interpretability of deep learning (DL) models. To tackle these problems, we propose a novel transfer learning methodology that utilizes domain adaptation and physical constraints. This methodology effectively employs historical data from the source domain to reduce negative transfer from the data distribution perspective, while also using physical constraints to build a robust and reliable prediction model that integrates various types of data. The methodology starts by dividing the production data from the source domain into multiple subdomains, thereby enhancing data diversity. It then uses Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) and global average distance measures to decide on the feasibility of transfer. Through domain adaptation, we integrate all transferable knowledge, resulting in a more comprehensive target model. Lastly, by incorporating drilling, completion, and geological data as physical constraints, we develop a hybrid model. This model, a combination of a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a Transformer (Transformer-MLP), is designed to maximize interpretability. Experimental validation in China's southwestern region confirms the method's effectiveness.