Unveiling Downstream Performance Scaling of LLMs: A Clustering-Based Perspective

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

MAGA: MAssive Genre-Audience Reformulation to Pretraining Corpus Expansion

Despite the remarkable capabilities of large language models across various tasks, their continued scaling faces a critical challenge: the scarcity of high-quality pretraining data. While model architectures continue to evolve, the natural language data struggles to scale up. To tackle this bottleneck, we propose \textbf{MA}ssive \textbf{G}enre-\textbf{A}udience~(MAGA) reformulation method, which systematic synthesizes diverse, contextually-rich pretraining data from existing corpus. This work makes three main contributions: (1) We propose MAGA reformulation method, a lightweight and scalable approach for pretraining corpus expansion, and build a 770B tokens MAGACorpus. (2) We evaluate MAGACorpus with different data budget scaling strategies, demonstrating consistent improvements across various model sizes (134M-13B), establishing the necessity for next-generation large-scale synthetic pretraining language models. (3) Through comprehensive analysis, we investigate prompt engineering's impact on synthetic training collapse and reveal limitations in conventional collapse detection metrics using validation losses. Our work shows that MAGA can substantially expand training datasets while maintaining quality, offering a reliably pathway for scaling models beyond data limitations.