A Latent Space Metric for Enhancing Prediction Confidence in Earth Observation Data

This study presents a new approach for estimating confidence in machine learning model predictions, specifically in regression tasks utilizing Earth Observation (EO) data, with a particular focus on mosquito abundance (MA) estimation. We take advantage of a Variational AutoEncoder architecture, to derive a confidence metric by the latent space representations of EO datasets. This methodology is pivotal in establishing a correlation between the Euclidean distance in latent representations and the Absolute Error (AE) in individual MA predictions. Our research focuses on EO datasets from the Veneto region in Italy and the Upper Rhine Valley in Germany, targeting areas significantly affected by mosquito populations. A key finding is a notable correlation of 0.46 between the AE of MA predictions and the proposed confidence metric. This correlation signifies a robust, new metric for quantifying the reliability and enhancing the trustworthiness of the AI model's predictions in the context of both EO data analysis and mosquito abundance studies.